Alex Sink Leads David Jolly by 9%, Libertarian Lucas Overby at 12% in St. Leo Poll

The polls keep coming in the special congressional election to replace the late U.S. Rep. Bill Young, R-Fla.


St. Leo University released a poll on Thursday which shows former state CFO Alex Sink, the Democrat in the race, takes 46 percent while Republican David Jolly takes 37 percent and Libertarian Lucas Overby garners 12 percent. The Tampa Bay times released a poll on Wednesday night showing Sink with a smaller lead and St. Pete Polls and St. PetersBlog unveiled a poll on Thursday which had Jolly up by a small margin. Both of the other polls found Overby polling in single digits.


The St. Leo poll shows 88 percent of Democrats are backing Sink but only 64 percent of Republicans are behind Jolly as 16 percent of them are for Sink and 14 percent back Overby.


“Ms. Sink’s advantage is being driven by solid favorability ratings coupled with issue positions that seem to be more closely aligned with voter preferences than are Jolly’s,” said Frank Orlando who teaches political science at Saint Leo. “She overcomes a partisan ID disadvantage in the district by maintaining much higher favorability among Republicans and independents than Mr. Jolly does among Democrats. The fact that a Libertarian candidate has robust support levels in the double digits seems to be contributing to the size of Sink’s lead.


“Jolly is not only leaking Republican voters to Alex Sink, but also to David Overby,” added Orlando. “Traditionally, Libertarian candidates have siphoned off more support from Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, and this is the case here. Despite being outspent and advertised, Overby’s presence in the televised debate has increased his visibility, but it remains to be seen if he can maintain this support to Election Day.”


The poll of 400 likely voters was taken from Feb. 9-11 and had a margin of error of +/- 5 percent.

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Comments (5)

Jason Hamlin
10:54AM MAR 11TH 2014
You incorrectly identified Lucas Overby as David Overby.
Craig Zurman
12:44PM FEB 14TH 2014
Pinellas County District 13 voters should be asking themselves this question: What candidate is most qualified and possesses core convictions that will represent our district in the US house effectively?

The newly elected CD13 House Member will be number 435 of 435. In a very complex Washington environment how will he or she navigate the halls of the Capital/Rayburn building and have an impact? The new house member won't reside on committees that will decide issues on military spending or headline issues. They will have to work up from the lower rungs of the house's ladder.

Pinellas County should be represented by an individual who knows Pinellas. A resident that brushes shoulders with his/her own. We all become mired in the tv ads, mailers and phone calls from Pollster's. Strip all that away and look at the candidates for who they really are. Their intellect, track record, homestead filing and ability to get things done in a complex political USA.

This special election should provide a clear indication about voter turnout out for a very serious and special decision on CD13 representation. It will show if we are red, blue or purple. What I hope occurs is that the election results sends a resounding message that Pinellas County constituents will make the best choice. I'm confident we will.


Craig Zurman
Craig Zurman
12:42PM FEB 14TH 2014
Pinellas County District 13 voters should be asking themselves this question: What candidate is most qualified and possesses core convictions that will represent our district in the US house effectively?

The newly elected CD13 House Member will be number 435 of 435. In a very complex Washington environment how will he or she navigate the halls of the Capital/Rayburn building and have an impact? The new house member won't reside on committees that will decide issues on of military spending or headline issues. They will have to work up from the lower rungs of the house's ladder.

Pinellas County should be represented by an individual who knows Pinellas. A resident that brushes shoulders with his/her own. We all become mired in the tv ads, mailers and phone calls from Pollster's. Strip all that away and look at the candidates for who they really are. Their intellect, track record, homestead filing and ability to get things done in a complex political USA.

This special election should provide a clear indication about voter turnout out for a very serious and special decision on CD13 representation. It will show if we are Red, blue or purple. What I hope occurs is that the election results sends a resounding message that Pinellas County constituents will make the best choice. I'm confident we will.


Craig Zurman
Sally Bergman
7:44AM FEB 14TH 2014
After watching the televised debates I am voting for Lucas Overby. His responses match my values and I can tell he cares deeply about serving the public with empathy and a willingness to break the gridlock in Washington.
George Whitfield
4:33AM FEB 14TH 2014
I will be voting for Lucas Overby, the Libertarian. He is the best choice in this election.

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