Barack Obama Would Lose All 12 Swing States Today, Poll Says


A survey of 12 swing states that Barack Obama carried in 2008 now finds the president losing to both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich there.

USA Today-Gallup -- polling registered voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin -- found Obama trailing Romney 43-48, and Gingrich 45-48.

Because Obama is expected to hold the big states of California, New York and Illinois, he maintains a popular-vote advantage nationwide, where he leads Gingrich 50-44, and edges Romney 47-46.

But the Electoral College math would deliver the White House to Republicans if they can carry the swing states, as the USA Today-Gallup poll shows.

Even more heartening for the GOP is the poll's methodology. Surveys of "registered" tend to artificially inflate Democratic numbers. Scientific samplings of "likely voters" tend to produce more conservative, and accurate, outcomes.
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Comments (2)

John
2:52PM DEC 14TH 2011
This is a clear distortion. Grouping all the states together so you can misrepresent the data boarders on being criminal. If you check out Realclearpolitics.com they have different numbers on some very important swing states, and if you discount Quinnipiac (as I do) the numbers are staggering.

1. Florida: Obama beating Romney by 7 and Gingrich by 12: NBC/Marrist
2. Pennsylvania: Obama beating Romney by 4 and Gingrich by 17: Morningcall
3. Ohio: Quinnipiac shows Gingrich and Romney up on Obama by 1 but PPP shows
Obama up on them by 9.
4. Colorado: Obama beating Romney by 2 and Gingrich by 8: PPP
5. Iowa: Obama beating Romney by 7 and Gingrich by 10: NBC/Marist
T Crittendon
1:55PM DEC 14TH 2011
This is very irresponsible reporting of polling. Elections are not determined from an average of all swing states together. This average is irrelevant to the way electoral math works. Obama could lose half of those states by large margins and win the other half by thin margins and still win re-election. Please brush up on how Presidential elections work and apply some basic mathematics to that process.

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