Is a Republican tidal wave coming in November? Maybe -- and if there is, it will be more likely to impact the states than Washington.

Smart Politics, a project set up through the University of Minnesota, is looking at the gubernatorial races around the nation and predicting major Republican gains. While admitting it is an outside chance, Smart Politics is open to Republicans coming close to matching their greatest electoral successes--1994, 1966, 1920.

Smart Politics is also making the GOP a small, but not overwhelming, favorite to keep the governor’s mansion in Florida come November.

While national focus remains on battles to control Congress, the states could be where the action is. One of the more interesting stories in 2010 will be if governors across the nation will be able to stem the anti-incumbent tide.