Swing State Debate Deck Stacked Against Mitt Romney
International survey research firm McLaughlin & Associates warns that even if Mitt Romney jacks it out of the park during tonight's debate, and President Obama lays an egg the size of a frying pan, it won't matter. Romney will still lose the post-debate swing state polls.
The reason why: Because voter samples that the media pollsters will call are already stacked to favor Democrats over Republicans. Says the pollster, "It's almost like a 1970s Olympics where the Soviets have the East Germans as judges and referees. There's just no way Mitt Romney can win these polls."
A look at the recent reality of actual voter registration and data in the most critical swing states -- Florida is a good example -- tells the story.
Florida actually lists party registration for their 11.6 million registered voters. Some 4.6 million voters, or 40 percent, are Democrats; and 4.2 million voters, or 36 percent, are Republicans. When over 8 million Floridians vote this year, it will probably be close to the actual registration.
McLaughlin shows that in Florida's most recent exit poll history, the average partisan total for the last four statewide elections, including the last two presidential elections, is Democrats 37 percent and Republicans 38 percent.
2004: Democrat 37 percent; Republican 41 percent.
2006: Democrat 36 percent; Republican 39 percent.
2008: Democrat 37 percent; Republican 34 percent.
2010: Democrat 36 percent; Republican 36 percent.
Have a look at some recent biased Florida media polls (compare the level of Republicans):
9/26: CBS/NYTimes Democrat 36 percent; Republican 27 percent.
9/23: Washington Post Democrat 35 percent; Republican 29 percent.
The most recent CBS/NYTimes and Washington Post polls have Republicans at levels not seen in Florida since the 1960s. McLaughlin, which discloses that it polls for Republican candidates but does not work for Romney, asks, "How can Romney win the coming media polls with fewer Republicans represented than when Barry Goldwater ran for president?"