When Florida’s legislators gather in March for the 2011 legislative session, tackling the state’s $3.5 billion deficit will be one of their most difficult tasks. Many states face similar (or worse) situations, but that fact won’t make it any easier.

Florida’s budget shortfall hit at least $3.5 billion Tuesday as analysts dialed-back the state’s revenue forecast, saying sluggish tax collections and a still-faltering economy are complicating the balancing act facing Gov.-elect Rick Scott and legislators.

With tax collections slowing, Medicaid costs rising and Florida housing still a mess, state lawmakers may be facing a budget shortfall whose depth is around $3.5 billion next year, analysts said Tuesday.

Forecasts for the cost of Florida’s Medicaid program were set to be agreed upon Thursday, but because of discrepancies between the estimates of two state agencies, they were delayed.

The unemployment statistics for Florida released last week revealed a slight increase in jobs but no movement in the overall unemployment rate -- a trend that is likely to continue if state economists’ predictions are correct.

Florida’s looming budget shortfall has been shrunk in half by state analysts who credit federal stimulus dollars, years of spending cuts, and Indian gambling money as helping forge a brighter picture – but one that could still leave the state in a $2.5 billion hole.