Rick Scott holds a 43 to 32 percent lead over Bill McCollum for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely primary voters.
In the Democratic race for the U.S. Senate, Jeff Greene opened up a 33 to 23 percent lead over Kendrick Meek, with former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre at 4 percent.
And yet despite the sizable monetary advantages held by Scott and Greene, both contests remain volatile.
In the GOP gubernatorial race, 23 percent are undecided and 43 percent of those who do name a candidate say they might change their mind, the Quinnipiac pollsters found.
In the Democratic Senate race, 35 percent are undecided and 54 percent of those who name a candidate say they could switch.
Scott's lead narrowed slightly from the 44 to 31 percent advantage he held in a June 10 survey by Quinnipiac. Pollsters said the results "strongly correlate with voter preference for a candidate who is a government outsider rather than one with longtime government experience."
Scott, former president and CEO of Columbia/HCA hospitals, is making his first run for political office and has spent more than $20 million of his own money to wage a statewide TV advertising blitz.
Attorney General McCollum, who has held public office for three decades, including several terms in Congress, was once considered the odds-on favorite in the gubernatorial contest. Now, outspent by Scott and with dwindling reserves, McCollum has taken $1.2 million from the state campaign-finance fund for support, and relies on the Capitol's GOP leadership to help him round up more.
A similar dynamic is unfolding in the Democrats' Senate primary, where billionaire businessman Greene is widening his lead over Meek, a congressman from Miami. Quinnipiac had Meek leading 29 to 27 percent in its June 10 poll.
"If there was any doubt that enough money can make a political unknown into a front-runner, the Democratic Senate primary and the Republican primary for governor should lay it to rest," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, based in Hamden, Conn.
"Both Greene and Scott have come from nowhere to hold double-digit leads with just a little more than three weeks until the voting."
"Anything can happen in the interim, but since their opponents are unlikely to outspend them down the home stretch, they are both in enviable positions," Brown added.
"Both men also are being helped by the national anti-incumbent, anti-establishment wave evident in other primaries. Both men have battled their respective party hierarchies, quite successfully at this point."
Asked which "type of candidate would you prefer to see as governor: someone with years of government experience or a government outsider," likely GOP primary voters opted for the outsider, 54 to 28 percent.
Other questions also reflect Scott's edge:
- Among likely Republican primary voters, Scott is viewed favorably by 39 percent, unfavorably by 26 percent, compared to McCollum's split 34 to 34 percent favorability rating.
- Asked which candidate would do a better job rebuilding Florida's economy, Scott leads by almost 2-to-1, 45 to 23 percent.
- Voters believe Scott shares their values more than McCollum, 38 to 26 percent.
- They see Scott as more consistently conservative, 38 to 26 percent.
Scott spokesman Joe Kildea issued a statement Thursday morning, saying:
"When you compare the numbers to the June 10 Quinnipiac poll, they show the McCollum campaign’s slide -- his unfavorables have skyrocketed 15 points while his favorables fell 9 points.
"Meanwhile Scott’s numbers show his favorables have dropped only 1 point over the same period, illustrating that Bill McCollum’s over $8 million spent on negative advertising over eight weeks has completely backfired."
University of Florida political science professor Daniel Smith observed, "I'm not convinced Scott has this one in the bank, but the unfavorables for McCollum are quite high, and I'm not sure there are enough undecideds to help him out in the remaining weeks."
Smith added, "Every move McCollum makes -- such as receiving financing from groups like (Mike) Haridopolos' 527 fund or the Chamber of Commerce -- reinforces the notion that he's beholden to special interests in Tallahassee. I'm not sure how that's reversible."
McCollum's campaign was not immediately available for comment.
Although Greene has vaulted to a double-digit lead in the Democratic primary, likely voters say -- 44 to 35 percent -- that they would prefer a candidate with long government experience.
The race remains fluid, as a high percentage of likely voters say they haven't formed strong opinions of either Greene or Meek.
Greene's favorability among likely Democratic primary voters is 31 to 18 percent, with 47 percent who say they don't know enough about him to form an opinion.
Meek gets a 28 to 13 percent favorability, with 55 percent saying they don't know enough about him, even though the congressman has been on Capitol Hill for eight years since succeeding his mother in office.
By 26 to 21 percent, Democratic respondents said Greene most shares their values, with 46 percent undecided. By 22 to 16 percent, they said Meek is more consistently liberal, with 57 percent undecided.
Meek's frustration appeared to boil over Wednesday when he would not commit to supporting Greene in November if the billionaire became the party's nominee.
Speaking on a conference call with reporters, the congressman said, "I’m the only one who hasn’t run as a Republican in the past."
Greene spokesman Luis Vizcaino responded that his candidate has always said he would support the Democratic nominee -- whoever he is.
But Vizcaino discounted Meek's chances, telling Politico that the congressman "will be broke in two, maybe three, weeks."
"Kendrick Meek's negative and false attacks have not worked. It's clear Florida Democrats are tired of the status quo and want an outsider and proven jobs creator to be their U.S. senator," Vizcaino said Thursday morning after the poll's release.
Smith said, "Meek's problem is that no one knows him, and his TV ad, which was a fairly small buy, does nothing to promote who he is for the undecided Democratic voter. It was 100 percent negative.
"You have to have something to build on for your own candidacy. Greene has already built up a positive image for himself. Meek hasn't done so."
From July 22-27, Quinnipiac surveyed 760 Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points and 782 Democratic likely primary voters with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. Likely voters were selected from lists of people who have voted in past elections.
To see the poll, click here.
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 559-4719.