Florida Democrats may be gearing up to face Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate race this November, but polls suggest that Gov. Charlie Crist would be a tougher opponent.
Numbers from Public Policy Polling (PPP) released Wednesday follow on the North Carolina-based pollster's report a day earlier that showed Rubio swamping Crist in the Republican primary 60-28.
But, PPP analysts said the general election scenario that gives Democrats the best chance of winning is a straight-on contest between Rubio and likely Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek.
"The Republican leads 44-39 in that match-up, and because there are a lot more undecided Democrats (20 percent) than Republicans (12 percent), the race is realistically probably even closer than five points," PPP said.
Rubio benefits from a more unified party with 77 percent of Republicans already committed to voting for him compared to 67 percent of Democrats who say they'll vote for Meek, a congressman from Miami.
"But Meek leads 41-34 with independents, a very rare outcome in this political climate when independents are usually leaning strongly toward the GOP," PPP said.
Though Crist trails Rubio badly in the primary contest, a Crist-Meek showdown would give Republicans their easiest shot at holding onto the seat. Crist leads Meek 46-33, largely because he garners 29 percent of the Democratic vote, compared to just 13 percent for Rubio.
"But given Crist's standing for the primary at this point these numbers seem almost elementary," PPP said.
Rubio spokesman Alex Burgos said, "Our focus is on the primary election now. By the time the general election comes around, we'll have had plenty of experience dealing with a candidate who supports cap and trade, stimulus spending and the Obama agenda.
Meek and Crist did not return phone calls.
The latest poll also suggests that an independent Crist bid would work to Rubio's advantage, because Crist would win more Democratic votes than Republican ones. In a hypothetical three way contest, Rubio leads with 34 percent to 27 percent for Crist and 25 percent for Meek.
Crist has repeatedly denied any interest in running as an independent.
Meantime, a new Insider Advantage/Florida Times-Union poll upped Rubio's margin over Crist, giving the former Florida House speaker a 34-point lead five months before the August primary.
In the survey of 512 Floridians taken by phone Tuesday night, Rubio led Crist 60-26, with 4 percent of respondents favoring other candidates and 10 percent having no opinion. He had lopsided support in virtually every demographic; only voters 18-29 favored Crist, 52-48.