Move over, Florida -- there’s another Sun Belt state popular with retirees that is looming as one of the chief battlegrounds between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

Arizona, which has 11 Electoral College votes up for grabs in November, has not traditionally been a battleground state. While the Grand Canyon State backed Woodrow Wilson twice, Franklin Roosevelt four times and went for Harry Truman in 1948, the only Democratic presidential candidate to carry Arizona in the latter half of the 20th century was Bill Clinton in 1996. He took 47 percent in Arizona while Republican challenger Bob Dole followed with 44 percent.

In recent years, Democratic presidential candidates have made pushes in Arizona, but the Grand Canyon State which has produced two Republican nominees -- Barry Goldwater in 1964 and John McCain in 2008 -- has remained behind the GOP. McCain took 54 percent in 2008 while Obama trailed with 45 percent. Still, Democrats have been making inroads. While McCain is a favorite son, he did not do as well in Arizona as fellow Republican George W. Bush did in 2004. Bush took 55 percent in 2004 while Democratic challenger John Kerry lagged with 44 percent.

The Obama camp -- including Vice President Joe Biden earlier this month -- has insisted that they will be competitive in Arizona come November and some pundits have ranked it as the most likely state to shift from the Republican column to the Democratic one.

Two polls released this week show that Arizona is shaping up to be a major battleground in November.

A Merrill/Morrison Institute poll released this week finds Arizona is close -- within the margin of error. The poll of registered Arizona voters finds Romney ahead with 42 percent while Obama is right on his heels with 40 percent. Obama leads Romney by 10 percent among registered independent voters in the poll but more than a third of them -- 34 percent -- are still undecided.

“In Arizona, like the rest of the nation, political independents may determine who wins in November,” said Bruce Merrill, a senior fellow at Morrison Institute for Public Policy, who directed the poll. Merrill insisted that the battle for the open U.S. Senate seat in Arizona will help shape the presidential contest in the Grand Canyon State. “The eventual outcome also may be dependent on whether former Surgeon General Richard Carmona can mount a vigorous campaign for retiring Senator John Kyl’s seat, a campaign that would stimulate turnout in the Hispanic community. While I think if the election were held today Romney probably would win, it appears Obama can mount a competitive campaign in Arizona.”

David Daugherty, the director of research at the Morrison Institute, noted that Republicans have traditionally had the advantage in the Grand Canyon State and that could be a factor come November.

"As the poll shows, the independents will decide this election in Arizona," said Daugherty. "But, it’s important to remember the state’s history: Arizona has supported only one Democratic presidential candidate since Harry S. Truman was elected in 1948. Winning Arizona will be an uphill battle for President Obama."

The  Merrill/Morrison Institute poll of 488 registered Arizona voters was taken from April 10-14 and April 16-18 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent.

While the Merrill/Morrison Institute poll finds Romney leading in Arizona, a Rocky Mountain Poll taken by the Behavior Research Center has Obama leading in the Grand Canyon State by the exact same margin. Obama leads the Rocky Mountain Poll with 42 percent while Romney follows with 40 percent and 18 percent are still undecided.

The Rocky Mountain Poll shows Obama with an even larger lead among independents in Arizona -- beating Romney with that group by 16 percent -- than the Merrill/Morrison Institute poll. Obama also leads heavily with Arizona’s Hispanic population in the Rocky Mountain Poll, beating Romney in that group by almost 40 percent.

The Rocky Mountain Poll was a survey of 511 registered Arizona voters taken between April 9-17 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent.



Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.