Genting Highlands Malaysia and Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino Hollywood, Florida | Credit: Sajin K - Timothy Wildey - flickr

The pari-mutuels are expected to face further economic hardships as the Seminole Tribe -- if freed from its more-than-$200 million a year contract with Florida -- would be expected to expand its Las Vegas-style table options and other games of chance now prohibited under the compact.

Economic reports released Thursday indicate that the revenue from three high-end resort casinos -- proposed in two bills now before the state Legislature -- may not cover the lost annual revenue from the Florida Seminoles orthose other pari-mutuel facilities.

Those facilities now produce an estimated $393 million a year -- $343 million guaranteed -- to the state.  The majority of that revenue would be eliminated if the Seminole compact is reduced or abruptly ended and the pari-mutuels see diminished play.

Meanwhile, beyond one-time application and certain licensing fees, the three proposed casinos are projected to generate $98 million to $210 million for state coffers each year through a 10 percent tax on earnings, according to numbers released Thursday.

Members of the state’s Revenue Estimating Conference continue to revise their projections and called the figures discussed Thursday preliminary.

“We won’t adopt a number until everybody is comfortable,” said Amy Baker, Florida's chief economist.

If the casino locations are in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, the Seminole contract -- which offers the tribe certain exclusive gaming rights -- remains in place, but the revenue from the tribe diminishes to $96.4 million a year, Baker said.

However, if any of the casinos land outside the two Southeast Florida counties, which Baker said is possible, the entire compact is nullified.

“I assume, because the bill does not limit it to Miami-Dade and Broward, at least one (casino) would be located elsewhere,” Baker said.

She and other members of the conference weren’t sure if they would find "comfortable" numbers.

The numbers considered Thursday were based upon a projection of three upscale gambling resorts being opened in South Florida by 2015, against revenue lost by breaking of the existing compact with the Seminoles, along with declining revenue from pari-mutuels now offering poker and slot income.

In making the projections, Baker expects one of the casinos to be located outside Miami-Dade and Broward counties.

The numbers do not include projected revenue from tourism, because Baker said the locations of the proposed resorts remain unknown.

She added that it’s too difficult to estimate how much new business the casinos could bring to the state or the amount of business the casinos will be “cannibalizing” from existing hotels and restaurant.

Baker has seen one report, by Bernstein Research, indicating that resorts in Florida could draw up to 15 percent of business now going to Las Vegas, but said more was needed to punch such a projection into the state’s estimate.

The economists are being careful because the numbers will be the latest debate points in the high-profile fight over the gaming bills, HB 487 and SB 710, filed by Rep. Erik Fresen, R-Miami, and Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff, R-Fort Lauderdale.

Faith-based groups have lined up with organizations that include the Florida Seminoles, Florida Chamber of Commerce, Disney, the Florida Restaurant and Lodging Association and the Florida Attractions Association in opposing the bill. The business groups claim the resorts will draw money away from current attractions rather than draw more people to Florida.

The Seminole Tribe operates seven casinos around Florida.