Buzz has been building in recent days that Condoleezza Rice, who headed the State Department in George W. Bush’s second term, would be a strong pick for Mitt Romney’s presidential running mate on the Republican ticket.

Rice certainly would bring some strengths if she ends up as Romney’s understudy, including becoming the first African-American woman to place on a national ticket. Romney has little background on foreign policy; Rice easily would fill that gap.

Two polls released in recent days show Rice remains popular with voters.  

Almost two-thirds of those surveyed in a poll of likely voters by Rasmussen Reports -- 66 percent -- see the former secretary of state favorably, while 24 percent view her as unfavorable. The poll of 1,000 likely voters was taken on April 24-25 and had a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. Compare that to a similar Rasmussen poll on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. That poll finds that 53 percent of voters see Clinton in a favorable light while 42 percent view her unfavorably. The poll of 1,000 likely voters was taken on April 20-21, and had a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.

Rice also topped a CNN/ORC poll of Republicans released last week that showed 26 percent wanted her as Romney’s running mate, followed by Rick Santorum with 21 percent. Prominent national pundits like Juan Williams in The Hill have made the case for Romney to pick Rice.

But there are major problems with Rice ending up on the ticket.

As Santorum’s unlikely success in the Republican primaries showed, Romney has problems appealing to social conservatives. Rice is unlikely to do a lot to help there.

Even during her tenure under Bush, Rice has made no bones about being pro-choice on abortion -- a major obstacle for many social conservatives. She has also been critical of conservative attempts to crack down on immigration at the state level, such as recent legislation in Alabama and Arizona. While this may help Romney bring in Hispanic voters, it could undermine his attempts to rally the conservative base.

Most presidential and vice presidential candidates do not emerge from the Cabinet. There have been exceptions, of course. Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren and James Buchanan used their secretary of state status as a launching pad for successful presidential bids. But since the Civil War, there have been only a handful of presidents -- William Howard Taft and Herbert Hoover -- and vice presidents -- Henry Wallace and Dick Cheney -- who have moved up from the Cabinet. George H.W. Bush, with his stints at the U.N., RNC, China and the CIA before serving as vice president, is the best example of a modern president who moved up through the appointment ladder.

Sam Rayburn, the legendary Texan who served as speaker of the House, put it aptly to his old ally Lyndon Johnson in the first days of the Kennedy administration. LBJ was gushing about the team Kennedy had assembled from the business and nonprofit worlds to serve in the Cabinet. Rayburn expressed reservations, noting that few of them had ever sought elected office.

“I wish one of them had been elected to dogcatcher or something,” Rayburn replied.

Rayburn had his finger on something. Some candidates -- Wallace, who served almost eight years as agriculture secretary but never ran for office before being nominated for vice president in 1940, comes to mind -- find ending up on a national ticket to be a bewildering experience. It adds one more element of risk if Romney ends up choosing Rice, despite her high poll numbers at the moment.



This analysis piece was written by Kevin Derby. Reach him at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.