The most vulnerable congressional representative in the nation is based out of the Sunshine State. That’s according to Roll Call which released its ranking of the most vulnerable representatives on Tuesday with Tampa Bay Republican Congressman David Jolly topping the list.
After the latest round of redistricting made his seat far more hospitable to Democrats, Jolly faces a major opponent in former Governor Charlie Crist in November.
“Jolly, who spent most of the year running for Senate, climbs from No. 3 to No. 1 in his re-election race against former Gov. Charlie Crist,” Roll Call noted. “He's pledged not to solicit campaign donations, and he's unlikely to get any help from the National Republican Congressional Committee in this heavily redrawn seat.”
Jolly had decided to forego running for another term and entered this year’s Senate race. But when Marco Rubio reversed course and decided to run for another term, Jolly bowed out of the Senate race to seek another term in Congress. Last week, Jolly took 77 percent of the primary vote, routing former Marines General Mark Bircher in a rematch of the Republican primary in a special election back in early 2014.
Jolly is not the only Florida Republican on Roll Call’s list. South Florida Republican Carlos Curbelo, whose district was also impacted by redistricting, also was included, placing sixth. Curbelo faces former Congressman Joe Garcia, who he beat last time out, in November. Despite Nancy Pelosi and the DCCC backing Annette Taddeo in the Democratic primary, Garcia squeaked out a victory last week.
“Curbelo has carved out a moderate path, saying he won't vote for Trump,” Roll Call noted. “Also working in his favor? Democrats didn't get their preferred candidate in the Aug. 30 primary. But Trump's effect on a heavily Hispanic district that became slightly more Democratic in redistricting leaves Curbelo in a tough spot. He moves up two spots.”
Despite all of the ten most vulnerable incumbents on the list being Republicans, Roll Call, like most pundits and experts, is expecting the GOP to keep the House on Election Day.