President Obama should be worried. Florida, key to his hopes for re-election, is turning against him. The president will soon realize that breaking his promises has serious consequences.
 
In 2008, Barack Obama eked out a Sunshine State victory, winning only 51 percent of the vote. In 2012, with nearly every demographic dissatisfied with his job performance, the president’s prospects look increasingly dim. Meanwhile, Republicans, building on our 2010 victories, have the wind at our backs heading toward November. And it’s all in the numbers.
 
Statewide, only 46 percent of Floridians approve of the president’s job performance, as compared to 64 percent in February 2009, according to a recent Quinnipiac poll. But only 39 percent of self-identified independent voters, the fastest-growing slice of the electorate, offer their approval. Voters over the age of 65, who vote at a higher-than-average rate, give Obama lower-than-average approval. Among this pivotal demographic, only 38 percent approve.
 
Florida’s Hispanic voters, critical to Democrats’ winning coalition in 2008, also feel betrayed. Fifty-six percent say Obama has been a weaker-than-expected leader; 60 percent say his campaign promises remain unfulfilled, according to a poll from the group Resurgent Republic. Increasingly, Florida Hispanics are turning to the Republican Party. According to exit polling, 15 percent of voters in Tuesday’s Republican primary were Hispanic. In 2008, they made up 12 percent. That’s significant: If Barack Obama loses just a fraction of the Hispanic vote in November, he is likely to lose the election.
 
Even Democrats have grown weary. Compared to Republicans, they are markedly less excited about the 2012 race. While 51 percent of Florida Republicans are more enthusiastic about the 2012 election than 2008, only 33 percent of Democrats say the same. Voter registration numbers highlight the same trend. Despite the state’s population growth, the Democrats’ share of registered voters in Florida has fallen for 26 straight months; the advantage they enjoyed in 2008 has shrunk by 30 percent.
 
Enthusiasm matters. It translates directly into votes. Last election, Obama had an army of devoted volunteers. Today, they are reluctant warriors at best. In 2008, Obama dazzled Florida with talk of hope and change. Three years later, he’s disappointed them with a record of failure and broken promises. And no slogan can paper over his shortcomings.
 
Florida families have been hard hit in the Obama economy, and the suffering is all the more frustrating since Obama promised it would all be different. He promised he could fix the economy, but it’s still failing. He promised that with his $825 billion stimulus he could keep the unemployment rate below 8 percent. Not only did it reach 10 percent nationally, it hasn’t returned below 8 percent yet. In Florida, unemployment sits at 9.9 percent.
 
The president promised his health-care plan would decrease premiums by “$2,500 for the typical family.” Last year, however, premiums for families rose by 9 percent, despite Obamacare. The story is the same on housing. Obama promised his housing programs would save up to 9 million families from foreclosure. But as Floridians know all too well, home prices nationally fell another 3 percent last year, and more than 7 million properties have received foreclosure filings since Obama took office.
 
Obama promised to end reckless spending in Washington; then he made it worse. He vowed to cut the deficit in half by the end of his term. Then he produced three record annual budget deficits of over $1 trillion each, fueling an acceleration of debt accumulation. Our national debt now exceeds $15.2 trillion.