Has Baggage Crushed Jeb Bush's 2016 Hopes?

By: Jeff Henderson | Posted: October 21, 2013 3:55 AM
Jeb Bush

Jeb Bush

Jeb Bush is being weighed down with baggage as he considers running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, some of it beyond his control but some of it of his own making.

Despite being more conservative than his father or brother, Bush is hampered by his family legacy. Five years after his presidency, George W. Bush remains a political pariah even with his fellow Republicans. The former president didn’t attend the Republican National Convention last year and nobody seemed to miss him. The likes of Ted Cruz and Rand Paul go out of their way to disassociate themselves with George W. Bush’s policies.

Nor are there signs of a revival any time soon. Twenty-five years after Ronald Reagan left the White House, Republicans still claim his legacy. George H.W. Bush launched political dynasties in two states. Even Gerald Ford seemed to bounce back as members of his administration like Dick Cheney and Don Rumsfeld resurfaced in George W. Bush’s White House. But George W. Bush’s legacy? Republicans continue to see him as an albatross around their necks.

But there’s more than family connections weighing down Jeb Bush’s hopes in 2016. Jeb Bush has been outspoken on two issues that set him at odds with the Republican base. No Republican politician has gone to bat for Common Core as much as the former Florida governor. Conservatives have pushed back against Common Core with a ferocity which surprised establishment Republicans who helped create those education standards. Jeb Bush shows no signs of backing down on his support of the standards. If he enters the presidential race, the tea party and other likely Republicans primary voters will remember where Jeb Bush stands on Common Core.

Jeb Bush has also been an outspoken critic of Arizona’s immigration law and a supporter of immigration reform. Most Republican primary voters, especially in Iowa which has the first caucus, are on the other side here.

Looking to counter these weaknesses, Jeb Bush can point to his eight years of running Tallahassee as a conservative. With the exception of Common Core, conservatives will find much to applaud in the former governor’s record on education. Jeb Bush also has the advantage of staying clear from Washington during the shutdown battle. Florida is still the largest swing state in the nation and Jeb Bush remains strong in the Sunshine State.

But these might not be enough to help Jeb Bush move past Paul, Cruz, Chris Christie, Paul Ryan and the rest of the Republican 2016 field. Complicating things is an old ally from Florida, Marco Rubio, who could also run in 2016.

In retrospect, Jeb Bush’s presidential chances might have been determined 20 years ago. In the Bush family, it was assumed Jeb and not George W. would be the future president. But in 1994, George W. Bush beat Ann Richards while Lawton Chiles beat Jeb. This gave George W. a head start over his brother. All these years later, Jeb Bush has some major obstacles to following in his father’s and brother’s footsteps to the White House.

Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.


Comments (17)

7:46AM OCT 22ND 2013
Jeb's chances have been crushed by the realization by conservatives who have come to realize he is a big government statist. His push to shove Common Core and his support for big expansions of Federal government intrusion into local issues like Race To The Top revealed who he really is. Just more of the same of what we have in DC.
Jeb's fingerprints are everywhere
4:51PM OCT 21ST 2013
Back to: A. Hick @ 4:01PM OCT 21ST 2013 _It's easy to see you are a graduate of the Bush family dynasty History 101 - Too bad you sell the Franklin Scandal and The (real) Vietnam war veteran John DeCamp who fought the system short. DeCamp saw many lose their lives (some in death (including an investigator and his young son in a plane crash) and others just plain destruction of their lives and call it "very much on the fringe of conspiracy theories." If your child had been murdered or kidnapped into sex slavery by some of these scoundrels you might have a different idea about so called "conspiracy theorists." AKA truthful people! Just like former disgruntled employee's who become whistle blowers and tell the truth. The scoundrels who control and "ruin" the system has to have a label for everyone. The control 99% of the media and by doing so made the Franklin Scandal disappear. They did not make the misery of the survivors of the abuse and their loved ones go away. Government officials treated that just like they have treated The Dozier School for Boys in Marianna and the Green Isle Boys Ranch in Lake County Florida,. Just like it all never happened. But it all did happen and the victims refuse to go away!
A. Hick
10:03PM OCT 24TH 2013
Not sure why you referenced me LOL I don't "sell" the Franklin scandal, and have never mentioned anywhere it except in reply to a post (perhaps yours) in which I said it was considered a fringe conspiracy theory. Now it IS considered that, but I have never commented on whether or not any of it is true or not. I don't know whether any of it is true or not, and have never researched it. I can assure you there or plenty of reasons having nothing to do with any "conspiracy" theory, and which cite well know facts which are universally accepted as reliable, for opposing any more Bushes in national politics. I personally want to stick with the solid, easily verified arguments for not electing Bushes. If you want to pursue the Franklin Scandal allegations, more power to you.
A. Hick
3:46PM OCT 21ST 2013
Jeb Bush is buried under a mountain of baggage, and a lot of it has his fingerprints all over it. Under no conceivable circumstances could he beat the Clintons. Considering not only what the author of this article brought up about the Crown Prince, should Rove and the Bush assassination machine rehash Rose Law, Vince Foster or Benghazi, Jeb will have to account for his questionable activity as a consultant at Lehman in 2007-08 prior to its collapse, not to mention his long career as a pay to play education privatization patron enriching his family's and political supporters and cronies' businesses.
William in Tampa
3:17PM OCT 21ST 2013
2:35PM OCT 21ST 2013
Can you folks that commented let me know where the tin foil hats that provide 3D digital reception can be acquired? I guess JEB! is no longer the annointed one and bestus governor ever.
Jeb's fingerprints are everywhere
11:58AM OCT 21ST 2013
Yea but those who do not really know how the Bush strategy works do not realize the goal is more important to them than actually winning any office. A BUSH always has a PLAN B. Bill Clinton was GHW Bush's Plan B when he lost to Clinton mostly over not being able to speak without using the term NEW WORLD ORDER. Whil most American's live day to day and pay check to pay check the Bush's plan decades in advance. Remember is was Jeb Bush who married into hispanic to create the new Bush family hispanic side. This year they have George P. Bush running for Texas Land Commissioner. (the office that controls oil leases) While little JEB is heading up the Maverick PAC here in Florida. If all else fails the Bush family will support their man Marco Rubio. Jeb already has him on board with the other left wing Republicans on immigration and (don't kid yourself) Obamacare as well. Obush, Obama, OHillary, Oh well - it's all in the family!

Anyone who can not see that Jeb Bush's COMMON CORE PUSH is an agenda to push the programming of American youth for their New World Order is blind to the facts of the world!

If you think they care about our youth, Google John Decamp and the Franklin Scandal - then if you are really brave Google and read the Immaculate Deception. Yea! Right! All written by former disgruntled friends and employee's. Sure they are!

And by the way, the reason so many people still think there is something they like about George W. Bush - the architect Karl Rove took a drunk and molded him in the image or an "ah shucks" Ronald Reagan. They people are not dumb, they have manipulated the USA and most of the world for centuries. Started, financed most of the wars in the last 100 years and raked in billions of war profits while doing so.

But, don't they look professional? Looks are deceiving!
A. Hick
4:01PM OCT 21ST 2013
You are wrong about Marco Rubio. The Bushes will never allow Marco Rubio to be the Republican nominee (and I think he probably already understands this) because George P. Bush is to be the "Hispanic" nominee of first impression, and will run a cult identity campaign similar to Obama's. So Rubio is out, on the national level at least. Though, for his service as a sort of political "John the Baptist" for George P., he will be handsomely rewarded in some manner by the Family, as long as he never crosses them.

I have no comment about your Franklin scandal references, etc., which are very much on the fringe of conspiracy theories, but you are right about the Texas Land Commissionership. As you know the Land Commissioner controls oil and gas lease largess on state public lands. You may not know that the Land Commissioner also controls (through revenue from patronized oil and gas leases) the education budget in the state of Texas.

This is part of a long term Bush Restoration AND enrichment plan. If George P. buys that office next year, look for Jeb not to run for President in 2016 (he can't win anyway and has to know it), but rather Jeb will, with patronage help from his son, spend the next few years looting the Texas educational system, make a killing doing it, and create a blueprint for taking the scam national under his son if George P. can steal and con his way into the White House later.
9:48AM OCT 21ST 2013
Common Core/Immigration,enough said.
9:08AM OCT 21ST 2013
Dear Jeff Henderson, Pres. Bush is a pariah only to rino republicans like you and the Rino republican establishment who were stupid enough not to invite him to the convention. That he was not missed is a matter of opinion . .yours. Me and every member of my family missed him, and all of my friends. We are conservative Republicans who believe in the principles of the Party . . .

Having lived in Florida during Jeb's years as Governor, I can assure you that Jeb is a moderate, George was moreof a conservative. The fact that you think Jeb is more conservative just helps me to identify you . . .as a genuine Rino. George Bush is more love and still loved by many, many in the Republican party. It is just not reflected by the Rino Establishment Republicans who are losing their base , and will NOT win the next election. If they win it will because th "People" were able to get a tea party candidate on the ballot.
Sid P.
8:45AM OCT 21ST 2013
Jeb, please leave and take Hillary and Marco with you!
Liberal Frank
8:17AM OCT 21ST 2013
Hillary is believed to be bisexual so she will get the gay/lesbian votes. Now that is great criteria for our next President.

10:18AM OCT 22ND 2013
Right wing demonization and politics of personal destruction . . . no wonder you guys are losing . . .

Pathetic . . . . (and copy-cat flattery will get you no where) . . .
8:16AM OCT 21ST 2013
Sorry, but I don't support this guy. I like Ted Cruz and hope he runs for President.

The REAL HORROR will be Hillary Clinton. My goodness, please don't support another Clinton. She had her time in the sun, time for new blood.
Jackie Grant
7:43AM OCT 21ST 2013
Thanks but no thanks Jeb - we don't need nor want you in the White House.
Richard Riker
7:24AM OCT 21ST 2013
His support of Common Core is enough to eliminate him from any further offices. Obviously under a facade of conservatism he's actually just another progressive.
The Liberal Diva
9:16AM OCT 21ST 2013
The Core is not progressive! It was made at the behest of big business for the purpose of training low wage workers and making Pearson rich.

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