The re-election of Rep. Chris Dorworth, R-Heathrow, should be a sure thing.

Dorworth has already been elected twice to the House District 34 seat, has an edge with Republican voters in the district, and has spent more money than his opponent has raised. He is slated to be the speaker of the House in 2014 and the upcoming midterm elections are predicted by just about everyone to be a wave year for the GOP.

But the district, which covers much of Seminole County and part of Orange County, is not safe for the incumbent.

Dorworth’s home is in foreclosure -- thanks largely to a $2.7 million settlement that went against the developer in a land deal gone bad -- and his committee donated money to the campaign of the judge who was presiding in the case. The judge has since recused himself and Dorworth claims he didn’t know his committee gave money to the judge’s campaign, but Democrats have targeted his seat nonetheless.

“I’m a businessman, and there’s bad cycles and good cycles and right now we’re in a bad cycle,” Dorworth said.

The Florida Democratic Party has given Dorworth’s opponent, marketing consultant Steve Barnes, $27,000, helping his campaign raise more than $87,000. Those funds, while not insignificant, have been swamped by Dorworth, who has raised more than $231,000 and spent $184,000. Barnes, however, shrewdly held back the majority of his campaign funds for the final weeks, spending just $16,000 as of Oct. 8.

For his part, Dorworth is delighted that his designation as a future speaker and money troubles have attracted Democratic money to the race in what he believes will be a losing effort for them.

“Every dollar they’re spending on me is a dollar they’re not spending on their incumbents,” Dorworth said.

Barnes has been highly critical of Dorworth’s financial struggles and thinks the district would be better served by a freshman legislator rather than by an experienced incumbent.

“There’s good experience and there’s bad experience. He’s had bad experience,” Barnes said.

Dorworth counters by pointing to his legislative record. He’s most proud of anti-sex offender legislation he helped push through, as well as a bill that would have allowed for greater legislative review of bureaucratic rules that was passed by both chambers but was vetoed by Gov. Charlie Crist.

Barnes speaks of using tax incentives to attract businesses and diversify Florida’s economy, and improving the education system to lure those businesses that employ highly educated, high-wage earners. Yet, Dorworth maintains his opponent’s campaign literature is less than substantive.

“One hundred percent of their mailings have been personal attacks,” Dorworth said.

Another factor in Barnes' favor is the presence of TEA Party candidate John DeVries on the ballot. He has run a largely silent campaign, not raising money or holding campaign rallies or events. Dorworth has nothing but praise for the “tea party movement,” but knows DeVries will pull votes away from him.

“I am mindful that there are some voters that are going to see that (the TEA Party name) and vote for him,” Dorworth said.

Still, Barnes realizes he faces an uphill struggle. There are nearly 3,600 more registered Republicans than Democrats in the district and independent voters make up 21 percent of the electorate. Independents and an informed voting public are the keys to a Democratic win, Barnes said.

“If people just vote the party line, then I’m going to lose, it’s a mathematical certainty. But if they do the research and find out about the candidates, then I have a good chance,” he said.