Politics
Head to Head with Webster, Grayson Would Be 'Cooked'
Around the State
Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson's slender hopes for retaining his 8th Congressional District seat would be all but dashed if he were in a one-on-one race with Republican Daniel Webster, a Sunshine State News Poll shows.
In that hypothetical match-up, Webster beats Grayson 50-37, with 13 percent undecided.
In the four-way race, Webster's edge shrinks to 43-36, with TEA Party candidate Peg Dunmire garnering 6 percent, No Party Affiliate George Metcalfe getting 3 percent and 9 percent undecided. (Click here for the report on that previously published SSN Poll.)
"It's like that Chicago politician prayed, 'Lord if I must have an opponent, please give me two,'" said Jim Lee, president of Voter Survey Service, which conducted both polls.
For Grayson's sake, three opponents might be even better.
In a sampling of 800 likely voters Sept. 21-23, Webster received 78 percent of the Republican vote in a hypothetical two-man showdown against Grayson. In the four-way contest, Webster's share of the GOP vote shrinks to 72 percent.
Webster fares far worse with independent voters in the four-way race -- actually losing that group to Grayson 42-43. In a two-way contest, Webster captures independents 49-26.
The four-person format even reduces Grayson's negative rating. His 51 percent "unfavorable" in the full field rises to 55 percent in a two-man heat.
"This validates the fact that NPA and TEA candidates are hurting Webster," Lee said. "Metcalfe, who draws 10 percent of the independent vote, is doing some damage."
None of which is to say Grayson has a clear path to victory against three opponents and a Whig write-in candidate on the fall ballot.
With his high negative ratings, an energized conservative base and Central Florida independents swinging rightward this year, Grayson has a steep uphill climb.
His best hope is that conservatives and independents will splinter on Election Day.
"In a two-person match-up, Grayson is cooked," Lee said.
VSS' automated survey was conducted four days before the four-way contest was polled live. The margin of error of the automated poll is +/- 3.46 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
Comments (6)
The Democratic party has not furthered any one expect for Gov. expansion. Unemployment in Central Florida is around 11%. The precious Social Programs that the party is so pround of , most of those progams have reduce coverage and seniors on Medicare will have prepare for a reduction of benefits.
Fannie Man/Mac has been a totaly failure with Billions lost to bad deals. The corruptions from Sen Dobbs , maxine Waters and Barney Frank goes on and on. There has been no true investagtion on how they spent the money and the Democratic party still funds ACORN to this day.
If this was a republican issue the liberals and the Democrated Majority would have people going to jail.
Republicans / Conservatives have laid out more practaticle progrmas that do not cost 13 TRILLION Dollars , WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE in the first place.. Its call opening the cross state lines for healthcare,tort reform and this is just Healthcare. The fact of matter is Democrates have the majority in the Congress since 2007 and controll the White House.(2009)
You guys have total control and can pass any you wish at your own risk at Election time. Normal Dem,REb, Conserv, and independants are well aware of you so call accomplishements.
Mr. Grayson, you just may want to send out resume's now. You may feel the pain of many Floridians that are our of work and Mr. Grayson you can reflect on your troubled career as a Public Servant. My what a concept!
FIRE THE ASS/CLOWN GRAYSON ON NOV. 2ND!
A DISGRACE TO THE 8TH DISTRICT AND THE NATION....
FIRE GRAYSON ON NOV. 2ND.
does he attack everyone who is not an extreme liberal, but tonight he attacked Anderson
Cooper for calling him on his unethical political ads. Grayson belongs in a mental hospital,
not in Congress.