Politics

How Newt Gingrich's Southern Front Flopped in Florida

By: Kenric Ward | Posted: February 2, 2012 3:55 AM
Newt Gingrich

Newt Gingrich

Proving that it is less a Southern state and more of a Yankee suburb, Florida awarded former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with a 14-point victory over Newt Gingrich.

Flipping the tables on Gingrich, who carried South Carolina by 12 points just 10 days earlier, Romney piled up huge majorities in Florida's most populous counties.

In Miami-Dade, Romney beat Gingrich 69,653 to 30,394. In Hillsborough, Romney won 43,129 to 25,520 and he carried Broward 35,795 to 22,012.

Overall, Romney's margin of victory in Florida nearly matched his performance in New Hampshire, where he beat Ron Paul by 16 points.

Coming off his win in the Granite State, Romney had a chance to duplicate his achievement in South Carolina. He entered the Palmetto State with a 15-point lead in the polls, but that evaporated in the heat of a fiery CNN debate performance by Gingrich in Charleston.

Taking on the mainstream media and Washington elites, the Georgian's anger resonated with South Carolinians -- and not just Republicans.

With the South Carolina primary open to independent voters and Democrats, Gingrich swept 43 of 46 counties and won every demographic category.

Gingrich's strong showing among non-Republicans punctured the conventional wisdom that Romney fares better with that cohort.

"It was not an ideological thing, it was an attitude thing. There's a lot of anger at the federal government here, and a p----d off Newt tapped into that," explained Wesley Donehue, a GOP strategist based in Columbia.

Donehue noted that South Carolinians are enraged over the federal National Labor Relations Board case against Boeing Co. and the Department of Justice's opposition to South Carolina's tough immigration and voter ID laws.

Floridians -- afflicted with even worse unemployment rates than South Carolina -- are anxious, if not angry, too. And it was Romney's turn during another CNN debate, last Thursday in Jacksonville, to turn up the heat.

Pounding away at Gingrich, the normally subdued Romney showed more fight, and carried the debate.

Romney's aggressive streak was also displayed on the airwaves across Florida's 10 media markets, with negative ads hitting Gingrich's Freddie Mac connections and ouster as House speaker.

Acknowledging that he lost his edge in Florida, Gingrich's "concession" speech in Orlando on Tuesday night was anything but conciliatory.

Instead, he pulled out the populist card he had played so effectively in South Carolina. Putting aside his musings about lunar colonies, Gingrich talked passionately about being the "people's candidate."

"People power beats money power," he declared, as he bashed campaigns (read: Romney's and Obama's) that are funded by "Wall Street."

Donehue, who served as Michele Bachmann's campaign adviser in South Carolina, said Romney does not naturally connect with poor and working-class voters.

That appears especially true in the South, where populism and a strong strain of distrust of the federal government has been cultivated since before the Civil War.

Florida, with its heavy influx of Northern residents and retirees dependent on Social Security and Medicare, is generally less anti-Washington than its neighbors across Dixie. Romney carried every voter group in the Sunshine State's closed primary except those describing themselves as "very conservative."

A CNN projection of future primary contests forecasts that Gingrich would sweep the Southern states and, due to proportional allocation of delegates elsewhere, could block Romney from amassing the required 1,144 votes for the nomination.

Gingrich's strength among rural voters was evident even in Florida, where he won dozens of small counties in the Panhandle and central regions of the peninsula. These counties most closely resemble the demographics of Deep South and border states that will be prominent on Super Tuesday (March 6).

Whether Gingrich's populist message can move him beyond that of a regional candidate remains to be seen. With his resume as a D.C. insider, his message remains inherently conflicted.

But many in the tea party movement and allied patriot groups remain eager to aid any candidate who is not Mitt Romney. And, for now, Gingrich has the inside track.

"It's a two-person race. Rick Santorum and Ron Paul should drop out if we are to have any hope of defeating the moderate GOP establishment's choice," said Jesse Phillips, a member of Florida's Tea Party Network.

Phillips, 28, is indicative of the challenge Romney faces among young voters who are uninspired by a well-heeled businessman who has taken to singing "America the Beautiful" on the campaign trail.

"Mitt Romney drew more young voters in Florida this year than in 2008, but the low turnout still raises questions about his appeal to youth," said Peter Levine, director of Tufts University's Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement.

Randy Nielsen, a Florida-based GOP strategist, says the Sunshine State is a much better proving ground for Republican candidates than South Carolina, which he called an "outlier."

Pointing to Romney's big wins Tuesday in the suburban counties of Collier, Martin and Palm Beach, Nielsen maintains those are the types of areas that carry Republicans to victory in general elections.

"Counties like Clay and the Panhandle would never vote for Obama. Rural voters are not the problem for Republicans," Nielsen said.

Women are also crucial, Nielsen said, and Romney carried their vote by a wide margin over Gingrich. "There is a huge gender gap, and it's a problem for Gingrich."

"If you can win Republican suburban women, you win elections in Florida," Nielsen concluded.

While asserting that he is "not necessarily a Romney fan," Nielsen predicted that the nomination of Gingrich would be "a glorious disaster on steroids. Gingrich will be a nightmare."

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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or (772) 801-5341.


Comments (7)

Jack Clark
5:52AM FEB 21ST 2012
The writer obviously has a tenuous grasp on the demographics and heritage of the State of Florida. Florida is a Deep South State with some occupied areas. Newt Gingrich is not even a Southerner..in fact he is a Yankee....born in Pennsylvania! So don't try and use Florida's primary to satisfy some sick and twisted desires to define Florida outside of the South. If you remember correctly, Florida voted for a true Southerner in the begging of all of this...Herman Cain won the straw poll in Florida, born and raised a Southerner. True Floridans know a real Southerner when we see one, this time we were only picking between the lesser of two yankees.
Bobb
11:33AM FEB 2ND 2012
This bit about morality in national politics is such a joke. Jimmy Carter probably had the hightest moral character of any President in recent histroy and he was the worst President (before Obama) And what about the wonderful wild Bill who had things going on in the oval room and now folks think he's great. (Some folks anyway)
Bobb
11:25AM FEB 2ND 2012
Mitt will loose in November if he is the candidate. Such a mild mannered aristocrat will be eaten alive by the Chicago street machine. In Florida, Newt was our chance to make a statement and we dropped the ball. Why don't we just put the Presidency up for bids if money is the only thing that matters?

Most Democrats, yes Democrats that I know supported Newt because they're mad as _____.
BARBARA STEPHENS
8:22AM FEB 2ND 2012
I FEEL THAT NEWT GINGRICH IS BETTER PREPARED TO BE OUR NEXT PRESIDENT.
Indiana
11:19AM FEB 2ND 2012
Odd. Would you even consider chosing Newt for your next husband. He's a liar and a cheat. Not sure where you grew up, but the man has no character, but I'm sure he'd be willing to buy your vote.
TomT
7:53AM FEB 2ND 2012
It's an amazing thing how the demographics turn in your favor after inundating the state with $16 Million of negative ads targeting your opponent.

Between Romney and his 'superPAC', better than 95% of the ads ran on his behalf in the state were considered negative. The most negative campiagn on record and that's saying something when you consider Florida is in a class of it's own when it comes to dirty politics.

In contrast, Newt spent $3 Million.
Jim B.
5:57AM FEB 2ND 2012
Jesse Phillips exactly who are you to tell Santorum and Paul that they should stand aside for Newt Gingrich? Newt cannot carry the bathwater of those two individuals. You and others believe he is a winner because he can debate. He is quick with a comeback and quotes history often. The old saying those who fail to remember history are doomed to repeat it. Well may I give you a history lesson.

When Newt was Speaker he had a few problems and he received a fine. We all know that. What you do not know and what I remember well is that Newt was radioactive in the next election. Every Democrat in the country used his name when running against a Republican and it worked. Bill Clinton won re-election in spite of his problems because they linked Newt with Bob Dole. Yes Dole was a weak candidate but Newt made him unelectable.

I am not a Romney fan but I will say this. Newt has authored more liberal bills in the House than Romney ever did as Governor. He believed in man made global warming, he was for the individual mandate in health insurance, he supported EPA regulations that made it difficult for businesses and our taxes increased under his leadership. I use to cringe when he would come out to do a presser at the end of the day.

Personally, Newt should step aside and let the true conservatives Santorum and Paul battle it out with Romney.

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