In Iowa, Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul, Sarah Palin on the Rise

Mitt Romney can't capitalize with Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump, others out of race
By: Kevin Derby | Posted: July 13, 2011 3:45 PM
Ron Paul, Sarah Palin and Michele Bachman

Ron Paul, Sarah Palin and Michele Bachman

A poll unveiled this week from American Research Group shows that three Republican presidential  candidates -- U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas and former Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska -- are gaining serious momentum in Iowa, site of the first presidential caucus.

Bachmann, who declared her candidacy in June and has been surging in polls at both the national and state levels, topped the poll with 21 percent. Former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts placed second with 18 percent. Paul, who was the Libertarian candidate in 1988 and ran for the Republican nomination in 2008, took third with 14 percent. Palin, who has not entered the race but has left the door open to running, took fourth with 11 percent.

The rest of the field trailed in single digits. Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia garnered 8 percent. Conservative former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who has worked the Hawkeye State hard, took 5 percent. Former Gov. Jon Huntsman of Utah, who has shown little interest in taking part in the Iowa caucus, took 3 percent. Businessman Herman Cain and former Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota tied with two candidates who have yet to enter the race -- former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Gov. Rick Perry of Texas -- at 2 percent. Two former governors -- Buddy Roemer of Louisiana and Gary Johnson of New Mexico -- lagged behind with less than 1 percent.

An Iowa poll taken by American Research Group back in April shows how much the race has changed since that time. That poll was led by former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas who won the caucus during the battle for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008. Huckabee, who announced that he was not running in 2012, took 18 percent in the April poll followed by Romney with 17 percent. Gingrich placed third with 12 percent and businessman and reality TV star Donald Trump, who has also said he is not running, took 10 percent in the April poll. Two other potential candidates who didn't run -- U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana -- garnered 4 percent each.

With these candidates out of the race, Bachmann, Paul and Palin have moved up since the April poll. Bachmann, who has been playing up roots in the Hawkeye State, stood at 9 percent in April. Ron Paul stood at 3 percent in April, below his son Rand. Palin took 4 percent in the April poll.

Two candidates -- Gingrich and Giuliani -- are starting to slip in the polls. Dropping 4 points since April, Gingrich has seen many key members of his staff resign since then and has been rebuilding in Iowa, bringing in former U.S. Rep. Greg Ganske to help right the ship in the Hawkeye State. Losing 6 points since April, Giuliani, who skipped Iowa when he ran for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, has done little to prepare for a 2012 run but insists it is still an option.

The poll of 600 likely Republican caucus voters was taken between July 5-11 and had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.


Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.

Comments (27)

12:07AM JUL 15TH 2011
It's too bad they need those stupid church idiots at all, but we need to win.
3:12PM JUL 15TH 2011
It's "too bad" you have the mentality of a 12 year old. You, do not represent "we".

"We" do not go around calling people "idiots", and then say "we" need to win.

"We" need people like YOU to grow up and represent the values that Ron Paul does, which is not calling people "idiots".
Ron Paul is one of those "stupid church people" who is a man of conviction, faith, maturity, and decency. Maybe YOU could take a lesson.
Liberty Lover
3:57PM JUL 14TH 2011
Honesty, character, and integrity get me every time... now more than ever. RON PAUL 2012!!!
Classical liberal
1:29PM JUL 14TH 2011
Ron Paul is going to the TOP. Bachmann and Palin are too divisive while Paul can get many more independents and even dem support.

Be a Blue Republican for a year all you dems if you care anything about peace and individual rights.
1:19PM JUL 14TH 2011
I don't know why the media even bothers mentioning Sarah Palin, at this point. She isn't going to run for President. She's a media sideshow attraction. Always has been.

Ron Paul has truly risen to the occasion. Not that he's changed at all, he just seems more amped up this time. And that only fires up the movement even more. This is already way more fun than last time.

I, for one, would rather challenge Obama next fall, with sound constitutional philosophy, rather than negative attack ads. Sorry, but that seems more the grown-up thing to do.

We've doomed our posterity, and we need to do something about it.

Ron Paul 2012
1:16PM JUL 14TH 2011
When it gets out that the only other job Michelle Bachmann ever had was a tax attorney for the IRS her campaign will be toast. The MSM has done a lackluster job so far getting this out.
12:56PM JUL 17TH 2011
Unfortunately, saying that Michelle doesn't seem experienced would open the criticism that our current president's resume in the pre-White House days was decidedly sparse. They would be rightfully called out for hypocrisy by every right wing guest on their shows.

Attacking Bachmann on this should just lead to a valid rebuttal from her compairing her to Obama's prior (lack of) experience and a general "I'm new blood, I'm Everywoman, throw the bums out" kind of refrain.

That's the kind of pandering that Bachmann seems awfully good at. I hope people see through the facade.
2:22PM JUL 14TH 2011
She also worked on the Jimmy Carter campaign against Ronald Reagan.
3:16AM JUL 15TH 2011
seriously?? Do you have a link to that?
Loyal Yank
12:25PM JUL 14TH 2011
Sound money. Sound borders. Sound foreign policy. Sounds like RON PAUL.
11:46AM JUL 14TH 2011
I am so happy I found Ron Paul - his firm stance and consistent voting record during 11 terms in congress has proven to me he is honest, knowledgeable and ready to lead this country towards a better future. I will vote for Ron Paul in 2012 come hell or high water.
11:28AM JUL 14TH 2011
Ron Paul for the win in 2012!
10:31AM JUL 14TH 2011
There is ONLY ONE man in this race that has the military, and economic experience to help pull America out of this downward spiral. There is only ONE man who has been CONSISTENT over the last 30 years. There is only ONE man that will NOT SELL OUT to the special interest lobby, and the corporate Wall street corruption.
One man who has had not only Fidelity to his wife for over 50 years, but strong FAITH, and Conviction, and Integrity.
That man IS RON PAUL.
If Ron Paul doesn't win? Then America LOSES.
America will go down in flames, and I am not trying to be dramatic. We are on the edge of a financial cliff, and he is the ONLY one with the understanding of the Federal Reserve, and how it is destroying our currency, our country, and ultimately our way of life.
He will be the ONLY one COMMITTED TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCE, and not sell out to the big oil lobby. There are biofuels now that produce 50 times more than corn (which we need for our food anyway), 15-20,000 gallons per acre @ 30/per barrel, and will make Iowa's farm lands into GOLD MINES.
BORDERS NOT Afghanistan's, or Iraq's, or wherever.
10:20AM JUL 14TH 2011
I will be doing my best to get Ron Paul elected to President. I HATED politics when I left high school 7 years ago and I wanted nothing to do with it. That is a dangerous stance since most of the legislation that is passed now affects me (since I am 24 years old) - not the old geysers in Washington or the old people that vote these losers into office. Ron Paul is old, but he is fighting for me and my future and my unborn children. He truly cares about all people. Ron Paul is the definition of conservatism and freedom. He is the man I want running this country. He won't tell me what to do or how to do it. He can help fix the astronomical problems previous generations have caused. He represents true America. I pray every night that Dr. Paul will win the election. Our country is sick and needs this doctor!
10:07AM JUL 14TH 2011
Ron Paul is the right person at the right time. His integrity, honesty, and common sense approach to our problems are the only things that can save this country from the downward spiral we are currently in.
4:22AM JUL 14TH 2011
I'm flirting more and more with the idea of voting for Ron Paul. His message and honesty are really refreshing.
10:42AM JUL 14TH 2011
Yes, with more and more research on consistency in positions and voting - I think a Paul/Bachmann ticket is the best opportunity to correct what has been happening in D.C. since Clinton!
11:18AM JUL 14TH 2011
I like Michelle bachman, but consistency? She has said she is a "libertarian," but she also supported the USA PATRIOT Act. There is nothing libertarian about that.
1:52PM JUL 14TH 2011
Let's not forget she was also an IRS Tax Attorney for 5 years suing Americans to pay taxes! That is not very Libertarian now is it? She's a staus quo.
9:58PM JUL 14TH 2011
In my opinion, Michelle Bachmann has already struck out. She has three strikes against her. She worked for the Jimmy Carter campaign against Ronald Reagan, voted for the Patriot Act and was an IRS tax attorney. Therefore, I cannot vote for her. On the other hand, Ron Paul is a strict Constitutionalist who has the most consistent voting record in Congress. In addition, he has common sense solutions for reigning in the out of control spending in Washington, DC, as well as on U.S. foreign policy and the economy.
12:11PM JUL 14TH 2011
Paul/Napolitano 2012
2:28PM JUL 14TH 2011
i couldn't agree more. paul/napalitano would be a knock-out ticket.

i plead to all of you iowa residents, please make a paul win happen. please attend the aimes straw poll. it will be displayed in so many other states and could catapult us to liberty in other states as well.
1:30PM JUL 14TH 2011
I second that!

Could you imagine the debate between Joe Biden and Andrew Napolitano? LOL.
12:57PM JUL 17TH 2011
Oh gosh, now we just have to make that happen! Please people, that would be priceless!
12:11PM JUL 14TH 2011
Paul/Napolitano 2012
9:33AM JUL 14TH 2011
9:21AM JUL 14TH 2011
The most honest politician in Washington. RON PAUL 2012!

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