Workers clean Naval Air Station beach in Pensacola, as BP oil washes ashore-June 10, 2010 Credit: Cheryl Casey.  Used under license from Shutterstock.com

The oily mess in the Gulf threatens to get messier if and when Floridians start making claims for damages. Insurance industry experts cite several scenarios for compensation, as well as many slippery pitfalls.

The good news for policyholders is that a newly issued Federal Emergency Management Agency bulletin declares the National Insurance Flood Program policy will cover floodwater and storm surge that is contaminated with oil. Individuals and businesses along the coast and in flood-prone areas are required by their banks/mortgage companies to have a flood policy if they hold mortgages.

But the absence of a storm could undercut FEMA's assurance, since "pollution" is usually excluded as a covered peril in admitted market policies.

Even under benign weather conditions, legal experts suggest the BP oil spill is likely to give rise to a host of claims under first- and third-party insurance policies.

Bob Hartwig of the Insurance Information Institute, in an advisory to insurers, listed the types of claims and their likelihood of success:

• First-party claims: Impending first-party claims offer more predictability because businesses covered by commercial property and "business interruption" insurance are often on standardized forms. A lot of activity is expected around business interruption, but under business interruption policies the suspension of the insured's business operations must be caused by direct physical loss or damage.
• Third-party claims: Oil companies/rig owners tend to have complex insurance programs with unique policies. It remains to be seen what policy limits are in place and whether applicable to relevant claims.
• Insurers' policy language: History shows that when there is a large-scale societal problem that requires significant funding to solve it, insurers' policy language faces pressure to become more malleable than intended. As a result, insurers may find themselves under pressure to pay more than their appropriate share.

But Hartwig said insurers' business interruption losses may not be as high as expected due to a number of "mitigating factors":