Politics

Iowa Poll, Pawlenty's Fall Set Stage for GOP Brawl in Orlando

Bachmann, Perry and Paul build momentum; Romney remains odd man out at P5 straw vote
By: Kenric Ward | Posted: August 16, 2011 3:55 AM
Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann
Florida's Presidency 5 straw poll looms ever-larger now that Rick Perry is in the race and Tim Pawlenty is out.

Pawlenty figured to make a strong showing in the Sept. 24 poll of 3,500 GOP delegates in Orlando. The former Minnesota governor had lined up support from top Sunshine State politicos, including the next three speakers of the Florida House, former Jeb Bush staffer and money man Phil Handy, and omnipresent political guru Justin Sayfie.

But when Pawlenty bowed out after finishing a distant third in the Iowa straw poll, the P5 field opened up.

Perry is expected to compete in the P5 straw poll, along with U.S. Reps. Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul, the first- and second-place finishers in Iowa.

"Paul is in and we feel good about Perry participating," said Brian Hughes, spokesman for the Republican Party of Florida. Hughes also indicated that Bachmann would likely confirm for the three-day P5 event at the Orange County Convention Center, possibly as early as this week.

"The landscape changed this weekend. With Bachmann's strong showing, there are a lot of great candidates to make P5 a pretty important event," Hughes said.

Perry spokesman Mark Miner would not confirm Monday that the governor will vie in the straw poll, but Perry got a boost when the father-son duo of state Sen. Don Gaetz, R-Niceville, and state Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Shalimar, endorsed him.

Reps. Jeff Brandes, R-St. Petersburg, and Clay Ingram, R-Pensacola, also jumped on board.

Pawlenty backers are keeping their powder dry ... for now.

State Rep. John Tobia, R-Melbourne, said, "The Iowa sample is not indicative of what's to come. Bachmann got a bump in name ID and fundraising. Whether it pushes her toward her electoral goal, I doubt it."

Tobia, a P5 delegate as a legislator, also questioned Perry's "baggage."

"It's hard to run to the right when you were running Al Gore's [1988] presidential campaign in Texas," he said.


PERRY GETS A MIXED RECEPTION FROM TEA PARTY

Many of Florida's mainstream Republicans who appear skittish about the hard-edged conservatism of Bachmann and Paul are warming to Perry as a viable alternative to front-runner Mitt Romney, who has said he will not participate in any straw polls, including P5.

“I would assume that most of Tim Pawlenty’s supporters will gravitate toward other governors such as Mitt Romney and Rick Perry," said Brian H. Graham, a Republican consultant who operates Dixie Strategies.

Roger Stone, a veteran GOP consultant, said Romney is "still the most likely nominee," adding that "Perry needs some establishment types" to gain traction in the race.

"[RPOF] Chairman [Dave] Bitner welcomes Perry. Clearly, he's a strong candidate with a lot of momentum," Hughes said.

Two powerful subsets in Florida's Republican Party -- tea party activists and religious conservatives -- could have a deciding say in the P5 polling next month.

Perry's reception among tea partiers has been mixed while Bachmann has been dubbed the "queen of the tea party" movement nationally.

"[Perry] has been making my head explode. The same guy who ushered in the Dream Act for the great state of Texas, and was a liberal Democrat not too many years back ... I did not trust his recent prayer shenanigans for a second," said Danita Kilkullen, who heads Tea Party Fort Lauderdale.

Tom Gaitens, Florida field director for the Washington, D.C.-based FreedomWorks tea party group, said the movement is "very much split."

"Bachmann is well-liked, but Paul has great sympathies among tea partiers. Perry would be a third choice, but growing."

Comments (2)

JanisL
12:39PM AUG 20TH 2011
Oh, what a sorry lot the GOP has assembled for prez candidates, as Babs Bush would say. Perry is a wrong turn, as he will be eliminated by his past issues. Not a one with broad appeal, and that's what you need, Gopee, to win the White House! Much ado about nothing.
Sam
1:45AM AUG 20TH 2011
Go Ron Paul. We need to take our country back and get rid
Of these fake republicans. Rino Romny, former democrat perry
Or Bechman (lawyer for IRS, the irony that she's "tea party favorite"???)

No other right choice but Ron paul