Jeb Bush Looks Steady in NH as 2016 Looms

By: Kevin Derby | Posted: October 26, 2013 3:55 AM
Jeb Bush

Jeb Bush

In New Hampshire, home of the first presidential primary, former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida stands just below the first tier of candidates in the potential field of Republican presidential hopefuls in 2016.

The University of New Hampshire (UNH) and WMUR released the Granite State poll this week, which found Bush, who is considered for a possible White House run in 2016, firmly in the second tier in the Granite State.

U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., leads the pack in New Hampshire with 17 percent, edging Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey who follows with 16 percent. The second tier consists of U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis.,who takes third with 9 percent, followed by Bush with 8 percent. Former U.S. Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., whose name was floated as a possible Republican candidate in New Hampshire, gets 7 percent, followed by U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, with 6 percent.

The rest of the field trails in low single digits. Bush’s old ally U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., takes 4 percent, tying him with former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa. Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin wins 2 percent while Gov. Rick Perry of Texas has the support of 1 percent. Gov. John Kasich of Ohio, U.S. Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., and U.S. Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, all lag behind with less than 1 percent.

Unlike Rubio, whose support has dropped during the year, or Paul and Christie who have seen their support move up in New Hampshire, Bush has been fairly steady in the Granite State. Bush has been steady in New Hampshire based on UNH and WMUR Granite State polls released throughout 2013. Back in February and April, Bush stood at 5 percent in New Hampshire. In July, he moved up to 10 percent.

For the most part, New Hampshire Republicans’ thoughts on Bush haven’t changed during the year. In the most recent poll, 47 percent of New Hampshire Republicans see Bush as favorable and 27 percent view him as unfavorable. Back in February, 53 percent saw Bush as favorable and 31 percent as unfavorable. This moved to 48 percent favorable and 34 percent unfavorable in April before slightly improving to 53 percent favorable and 27 percent unfavorable in July.

Still, Bush has garnered a core of Republicans who will not support him under any circumstances, with 8 percent of those surveyed in the new poll saying this. Again, this number hasn’t moved much this year. It was 6 percent back in February, 8 percent in April and 11 percent in July.

Regardless, Bush seems to be in the same boat as another national figure who could be running for the Republican nomination in 2016 -- Paul Ryan. While Bush is well-known as the son of one president and the brother of another, Ryan was Mitt Romney’s running mate on the Republican presidential ticket in 2012. While neither Bush nor Ryan has led the pack in New Hampshire, their numbers have generally been steady throughout the year.

On the Democratic side, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has a commanding lead with 64 percent. Vice President Joe Biden and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass, tie for second with 6 percent each. Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York takes 2 percent followed by Gov. Deval Patrick of Massachusetts with 1 percent. Former U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., newly elected U.S. Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., U.S. Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., and Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley take less than 1 percent. U.S. Sen. Kristen Gillibrand, D-N.Y., and Gov. John Hickenlooper lag with 0 percent each. Patrick and Booker have closed the door to running in 2016.

The poll of 663 New Hampshire voters was taken from Oct. 9-16 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percent.

Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com.

Comments (9)

A. Hick
12:14AM NOV 6TH 2013
The Republicans, if they want to win in 2016, would be stupid not to pick Christie, who basically gave his presidential announcement speech tonight after winning a landside reelection in deep blue New Jersey. Christie could beat Hillary, UNLESS he picked the Crown Prince John Ellis as his running mate. Kiss of death. I can't imagine a Bush Crown Prince settling for number 2, though. (But I guess the family still has some friends out there like the Hinkleys).

None of the Republican ideologues would beat her, nor certainly would Bush. Christie ought to find a pragmatic woman to be his running mate. Surely there are a few in the GOP.
7:01AM OCT 27TH 2013
The control these people have held over the Republican Party for the last for the last couple of decades and facts that continue to bubble ot the surface regarding their connections to Caryle, Haliburton, Wall Street and 9/11 have already destroyed the Republican Party. The problem is they also control those little "Clint Curtis" vote fixing chips. But. no matter if they do really control the votes necessary to fix elections. In the presidential election The Electoral College (they) have it rigged so that only Republicans and Democrats have voting delegates. No third part candidate could ever win with a fix like that. So what is the American people to do. The politicians in power own and control the politics.

The really good thing is the people are finally coming awake to the long history of the Bush family dynasty. P.S. Speaking of George P. Bush (the phony hispanic son of Jeb) At the present they are anointing him Texas Land Commissioner. Check out his Dec 31, 1994 burglary at the home of one Murray Cohen. Then check out the cover up of the death of one Murray Cohen by gov Jeb Bush and his successors. Is there a connection here? If not why go to all this trouble to protect a murderer?
A. Hick
8:30PM OCT 31ST 2013
"Speaking of George P. Bush (the phony hispanic son of Jeb) At the present they are anointing him Texas Land Commissioner."

Fellow traveler, at least one other person speaks the truth. :-)
Harold P. Monoginslogin
8:45PM OCT 26TH 2013
That would be the death nail for the Party!!! Not another Bush!!!
A. Hick
1:12PM OCT 26TH 2013
There is no doubt that the Crown Prince John Ellis Bush believes he is entitled by birth and family connection to occupy the White House. He is seriously considering forcing his family's political party to nominate him and face Hillary Clinton. He can force them to do it if he chooses.

I do not believe he (or Rove) could deliver the general election against the Clintons. Not only are there probably 10 percent of the GOP "tea party" base that would stay home if he nominated himself, but a significant percentage of independents and non aligned voters would not vote for another Bush in 2016 under any scenario.

The Bushes had better wait until 2024 and try to put Prince George P. over on the country as a phony "Hispanic."
Google Find and Read the Bush Family History
9:26AM OCT 26TH 2013
It is all in the long term Bush plans. George HW Bush (old CIA himself) has pulled the strings on this since WW2. The first Watergate burglary was to get the Dallas book depository pictures of GHW Bush at the JFK murder scene. The second Watergate burglary was to set up Nixon for a take down because Nixon would not appoint GHWB his VP after the Spiro T. Agnew take down and instead appointed Gerald Ford. Ford was supposed to appoint GHWB his VP but the Rockefeller world bank intervened and Ford was forced to chose Rockefeller. Ronald Reagan wanted Ford as his VP, he did not want GHWB but was arm twisted at the convention to accept GHWB. About 6 weeks into his first term John Hinckley, Jr. attempted to assassinate Reagan. Do the research Hinckley is a Bush relative and in fact Hinckley's father was scheduled to dine with Neil Bush they night after the attempt of Reagan's life. The push for Common Core and Charter schools like Guelen (Muslim) takeover's show the Bush dynasty is at the top of the food chain in the New World Orders movement to destroy the USA and turn it into a Nazi-Communist-Muslim like nation. Interesting that in 1831 the book titled "The Life of Mohammad" was written by a preacher by the name of George Bush. All the facts are there as plain as the nose on your face!
8:32AM OCT 28TH 2013
I am completely opposed to Common Core and I suspect your post is a plant to make opponents look crazy...or, you really need help desperately.
Stephanie Harrell
7:24AM OCT 26TH 2013
Sorry, Jeb, but I can never give you my support. I believe, you are a progressive republican and for your support of Common Core education system. We do not need any more progressive republicans and Common Core is not a good education system when it puts all students in the same bucket and does not allow any creativetism. What are you thinking? No more Bush family!!!!
6:31AM OCT 26TH 2013
Sorry JEB, you are damaged goods. Daddy's "Read my lips, no new taxes" and Bro's Prescription Drug bill along with TARP are too much weight to carry and still reach the finish line. America had great hopes for your dad, being Reagan's veep, but he was no Reagan. "W" had great hope but the first term was dealing with 9/11, giving him a second chance at being an economic blessing and he failed.

Thank you for you excellent work as Governor of Florida but you need to win more than Florida to get there.

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