A poll released by Suffolk University/7News (WSVN in Miami) on Wednesday finds that President Barack Obama and former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, the overwhelming favorite for the Republican nomination, are in a close fight to win Florida in November, but the Republicans can increase their odds of carrying the Sunshine State if a favorite son -- namely former Gov. Jeb Bush or freshman U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. -- is added to the ticket.

The poll of likely voters has Obama taking 46 percent while Romney is right on his heels with 45 percent and 7 percent remain undecided. But if Bush or Rubio are thrown into the mix, Romney moves ahead in the poll. When Rubio is added to the ticket, the Republicans take 47 percent while Obama and Vice President Joe Biden follow with 44 percent. The poll shows that Bush would also help Romney in Florida. In that scenario, Romney-Bush take 47 percent while the Democrats follow with 45 percent.

“A small percentage of Obama voters would leave the Democratic ticket to follow Rubio, tipping the scales to the GOP,” said David Paleologos, the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “In a contest likely decided by 1 or 2 points, Rubio’s ballot presence could be the key to Florida’s electoral votes.”

While the poll shows a close race in Florida, Paleologos noted that a Suffolk poll taken in January, before Romney won the GOP primary in the Sunshine State, showed the Republican with a larger lead. In that poll, Romney garnered 47 percent while Obama trailed with 42 percent.

“Despite locking up the Republican nomination and a strong showing in the Florida Republican primary in January, Romney still has a lot of work to do to win over Florida voters,” insisted Paleologos. “He would need to repair the fallout of negativity from the Republican primaries by being more likable and offering general-election voters a positive alternative to President Obama.”

While he is facing a tough fight from Romney in Florida, the poll shows that Obama remains with his nose above the water in Florida. Half of those surveyed -- 50 percent -- see Obama in a favorable light while 45 percent view him as unfavorable. But only 47 percent approve of Obama’s job in the White House and 46 percent of those surveyed disapprove of it.

The new poll shows Romney is upside down in the Sunshine State with 42 percent of those surveyed saying they have a favorable view of him while 45 percent see him in an unfavorable light. The January poll found that Florida voters held Romney in higher esteem, with 44 percent having a favorable view of him and 37 percent an unfavorable one.
 
The new poll also finds that 60 percent of those surveyed believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction while 31 percent think it is headed on the right track. Back in January, 27 percent of those surveyed thought the nation was headed in the right direction while, back in October, a Suffolk poll showed that 20 percent of Florida voters were convinced the nation was on the right course.

Paleologos said this trend could portend well for Obama in the Sunshine State.
 
“This positive movement on perceptions about the direction of the country over two consecutive polls is solid evidence that things are looking better to those who weren’t sure in the last poll,” said Paleologos. “An acceleration of this number is the trajectory that Obama could ride to re-election as people tie the economy to his incumbency in a positive way.”
 
However, the poll also shows that Floridians remain wary about jobs even as the national unemployment rate went to 8.1 percent last week. A plurality of those surveyed -- 43 percent -- believe the jobs outlook in the Sunshine State to be poor and 38 percent think it is fair. The poll shows little optimism in Florida on jobs as only 11 percent think the outlook is good and 2 percent think it is excellent.

The poll finds that the economy could remain a weak spot for Obama as he tries to carry Florida for a second time, as 42 percent think Romney would do a better job on the economy while only 40 percent think the president can manage it better. The economy is the pressing issue, according to the poll in Florida, as 76 percent of those surveyed say that where the candidates stand on it is more important than their stances on social issues. The poll also finds that 51 percent of those surveyed oppose the federal health-care law that Obama signed in 2010 while only 34 percent support it. However most of those surveyed -- 51 percent -- think Obama will win a second term while 31 percent think Romney will prevail in November.

While Obama has expressed no signs of dumping Biden from the ticket, the poll shows that he could benefit by adding an old rival turned ally to the ticket -- U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Clinton is seen as favorable by more than two-thirds of those surveyed -- 68 percent -- while barely a quarter -- 26 percent -- view her as unfavorable.
 
Still, the poll shows that both Bush and Rubio are in solid shape with Florida voters. While Rubio is seen as favorable by 49 percent of those surveyed, 30 percent see their junior senator in an unfavorable light. More than half of those surveyed -- 56 percent -- see Bush as favorable while 34 percent see the former governor as unfavorable.

The poll of 600 likely general election voters was taken from May 6-8 and had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.



Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.