If the presidential election were held today, Florida would be a jump ball between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama: 45 percent to 44 percent.

The 1 percent margin for Romney, judged to be a statistical tie in a new public opinion poll, shows the president's weakness against a GOP candidate who, at times, has not even led his own party's field.

In the same survey, Obama held a 44-39 edge over Rick Perry, a new entrant to the crowded GOP contest.

The Aug. 8-9 poll, sponsored by the Associated Industries of Florida and conducted by McLaughlin & Associates, showed independents more likely to vote for Romney than Perry.

“Whether the Republican nominee is Romney or Perry, we’re still only seeing about 44 percent of Florida voters willing to re-elect the president. In a critical state like Florida and in a political environment rife with anti-incumbent sentiment, that’s a bad sign for the president,” said Ryan Tyson, AIF vice president of political operations.

In the Republican primary, the poll showed Romney holding a double-digit lead over Perry -- 27 percent to 16 percent -- with U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann following at 10 percent.

But political observers noted that the poll was concluded four days before Perry officially entered the race and before Bachmann won the Iowa straw poll -- both events occurring last Saturday.

As of the date of the poll, 22 percent of likely Florida GOP primary voters said they were undecided on their party's nominee.

"These findings illustrate that while Mitt Romney may have a head start, the GOP nomination for president is still very much up for grabs in Florida," the McLaughlin poll said.

The poll also showed:

• 33 percent of Florida voters are more likely to vote for the Republican candidate for president if U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio joined the ticket as the vice presidential candidate. Fifty-three percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of Sen. Rubio;
• 43 percent said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by the tea party while 26 percent would be more likely. Forty-six percent of respondents said they disagreed with the tea party movement’s issues and priorities while 42 percent agreed.

McLaughlin & Associates surveyed 600 randomly selected Florida voters who said they were likely to cast ballots in the general election.

All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers, with a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. Questions regarding the Republican primary for president were posed to 223 randomly selected likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 6.6 percent.

See charts and details of the poll here.

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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.