Politics

Mitt Romney Tops 50 Percent in Florida to Lead President Obama by 5 Clear Points

By: Jim Turner | Posted: October 26, 2012 3:55 AM

Barack Obama and Mitt Romney Poll
Florida and its important 29 electoral votes are all but in the Romney camp, according to a Sunshine State News poll of likely voters taken mostly following the third and final presidential debate.

But the parties still have a big challenge ahead in their ground games. Early voting begins Saturday in Florida.

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney pushed above the 50 percent mark in the poll conducted between Oct. 22 and Oct. 24 by Harrisburg, Pa.-based Voter Survey Service.

Of 1,001 likely Florida voters, 51 percent were ready to vote for Romney to 46 percent for President Obama.

Only 12 percent said the recent debates had any sway on their opinion, with 40 percent of those individuals saying they switched from Obama to Romney and just 22 percent going the other way.

Florida Presidential Preference Poll
“Basically, Romney is winning this race, and the poll confirms the debates have had a big impact on his recent surge,” said VSS President Jim Lee.

“The fact that Romney as the “challenger” is already at 51 percent is a huge indication this race is all but over -- undecided voters aren’t like to break for the incumbent in this kind of environment.”

The results run similar to many other recent polls for Florida conducted by:

Rasmussen, 52 percent to 46 percent for Romney;

CNN, 49 percent to 48 percent for Romney;

PPP, 48 percent to 47 percent for Romney;

Gravis Marketing, 50 percent to 49 percent.

A Newsmax poll put the contest at 48 percent to 42 percent for Obama.

University of South Florida political science professor Susan Macmanus said the contest will ultimately come down to how the campaigns are able to get their voters to show up and cast ballots.
 
“Polls can never predict turnout,” Macmanus said.

She said political observers will have a better grasp on Florida after the early voting period begins this weekend and turnout numbers can be seen in urban areas such as Tampa and Orlando, which are expected to be strengths for Obama.

“Much has been touted about the superior organization of the Obama campaign, but we will have a better look at it in the next few days,” Macmanus said.

Meanwhile, the state, as of Thursday morning, had already received 1.05 million absentee ballots back from voters, of which 468,417 are from registered Republicans and 414,343 from registered Democrats, according to the Division of Elections.

According to the VSS poll results, in which 50 percent of those contacted labeled themselves conservative and the rest evenly split as liberal or moderate, Romney is winning the argument about jobs creation by a 2-1 margin, and even on international issues by a 51 percent to 44 percent margin.

Lee said the internal results suggest Romney’s debate performance at Lynn University in Boca Raton helped and that the fallout from the attack on the U.S. consulate in Libya continues to drag on Obama.

They are also important “because national polling earlier this year showed Obama had stolen the long GOP-held honor of the party best able to fight terrorism and deal with international issues,” Lee added.

Romney has a 15 percentage-point margin with men, with Obama having a 5 percentage-point edge with women voters.

While Obama continues to win with young and black voters, he is underperforming from his 2008 victory with suburban, women and Hispanic voters.

The poll also suggests that Obama may be losing some support in the black community, as 21 percent of the respondents identifying themselves as African-American plan to vote for Romney.

Lee noted that while some polls using "live" pollsters have pushed Obama numbers above 90 percent among black voters, those using automated polls have shown a more diverse outcome.


“This would suggest perhaps Obama won't be on track to get 95 percent of the black vote this time, but only 90 percent or even less.”

The numbers give Romney expected advantages in the Panhandle and Southwest Florida, while holding leads in the critical I-4 corridor, which went for Obama in 2008.


Meanwhile, while Obama continues his lead in Southeast Florida, the numbers are down from 2008.

Lee noted that Palm Beach County, which Obama carried by 23 points four years ago, now appears as a 12-point advantage for the president.

See the cross-tabs and methodology for this poll in the attachments below.

The margin of error for a sample size of 1,001 interviews is +/- 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.
 



Reach Jim Turner at jturner@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 215-9889.



Attachments: 

Comments (98)

spotlight123
5:36AM NOV 25TH 2012
very interesting. the useful information. Thanks
wbp
4:57PM OCT 29TH 2012
the sunshine state news poll, that's funny. of likely voters. everybody is a likely voter when you ask them. nobody admits to being a non voter. every snow bird i talk to says they vote up north, are they asking them or do they vote twice ? this election is a dead heat, it will simply come down to who gets the vote out better. sunshine state news is about as right wing as it gets, yea i trust them to be about as fair as the RPOF.
max espo
9:59AM OCT 28TH 2012
Romney did not run for second term in Massachusetts. He knew that he did not have a chance. The State was 47th in the nation in job creation and his approval rating was very low. To think he has some special knowledge about business is absurd. Why is Obama dominating Romney in Massachusetts ? Because the people there know the truth. They experienced it.
Peter
1:41PM OCT 28TH 2012
If you've heard about the word delusional, it fits uh description of gov. Romney. Here is a man who successfully dealt with 86 per cent dems, created jobs, cut taxes 19 times and created surplus from being in the hole by billions. You get the message. And if u don't, you've. Been hiding somewhere. I think it's important that people with ur skewed ideas become more objective. See the real cause and effect relationships, incJluding the continuous lies that are coming out of the oval office and encourage everyone to vote Romney. Even if u don't you'll find out the hard way on nov. 6th.
David Lane
11:48AM OCT 27TH 2012
Are the polls to be taken seriously? I get at least 2 calls a month. I am sick of being called. Now I just hang up on these people. To make the polls creditable they should include the number of people who did not participate in the polling process. Also many people at this time of year are in Florida from other states and will vote in those states. Are we counting them as Florida voters?
Melissa Joe
12:48PM OCT 28TH 2012
are you even aware of what polling is? the process? also...its "credible..." dont be another uninformed voice.
christopher johnson
8:06AM OCT 27TH 2012
Your polling does not adjust for the impact that South Florida voters will have in the Florida election. A two percent increase in votes in South Florida would desolve a Romney advantage (if any).
Jobs0912
7:45PM OCT 26TH 2012
mittknows[filtered word]aboutjobs.com
Tricia
4:38PM OCT 26TH 2012
I live in Florida and Mitt Romney is getting my vote and every other member of my family's vote. There are 35 of us in the sunshine state and we have had enough hope and change to choke us to death. Go Romney!!
JWCRA
4:07PM OCT 26TH 2012
Believe it or not, in San Diego. Romney bumper stickers are 4:1. Also lawn posters. Never saw that in 2008. At least SD has some sense so don't count out the whole state!
james smithson
3:55PM OCT 26TH 2012
I do not understand why so many of you people are opposed to Our wonderful POTUS. Since he has been in office the sun has come up in the East EVERY SINGLE DAY. It has also been light in the day time and dark at night. What more do you want?
James Senner
3:40PM OCT 26TH 2012
It has been over in Florida for a couple of weeks now. One of the major polling organizations pulled out of there then, stating that Florida, Virginia and one other state (NC?) were not worth further polling.
Mr. Derp
3:38PM OCT 26TH 2012
Obama belongs in prison and anyone who votes for him at this point is delusional, ignorant, crazy, or a racist.
Fred
7:36PM OCT 27TH 2012
Personally I think your con man Romney belongs in prison!!
Peter
1:53PM OCT 28TH 2012
Did u forget who lies through his teeth day and night, or is Muslim, or has no spine! Or is deceitful, or knws nothing about how economy works, or did not protect the lives of 4 americans or, or, or... . Is the memory a problem to see the stark height of this incompetent pres?l
Or
Andrea
4:55PM OCT 26TH 2012
Why does O belong in prison?
Frank
8:49PM OCT 26TH 2012
Apparently, because he's a Democrat . . .and perhaps because he's a black President.
angellann
3:11PM OCT 26TH 2012
clarify...i live in minneapolis, land where 79 languages in the school system and stupid teachers refuse to admint that is what is causing the learning issues. duh.....the teachers are the problem, they aren't smart enough to teach the kids here. I'm not being funny....we have the dumbest teachers and professors here and they do a good job teaching kids all about entitlement.
astralweeks
3:09PM OCT 26TH 2012
It's comforting to see the majority of people in Florida have the intelligence to think for themselves. As for that 46%, don't feel bad for yourselves...you can't fix stupid.
astralweeks
3:09PM OCT 26TH 2012
It's comforting to see the majority of people in Florida have the intelligence to think for themselves. As for that 46%, don't feel bad for yourselves...you can't fix stupid.
angellann
3:08PM OCT 26TH 2012
I am in minnesota and believe it or not there are very few obama signs. even fewer romeny signs but honestly....i know that people think we are bat ch t crazy here in the cold tundra (jesse, ellison, franken, dayton) but there really is hope. There are a lot of people like me....we just keep our trap shut for fear of losing our job or friends. the Liberals here are like mad dogs, seriously.....scary stuff but I believe in my heart if the momentum keeps up romney could win.
everyone's focus in the gay marriage deal....good for them as I hope they focus on that and let us pass the voter ID law. amazing that we are even discussing the need for showing ID to vote, it should be a given. also, just a little insight to why mn is so liberal...it's all the minorities and colleges indoctrinating the students, sad.
Gene Evensen
2:55PM OCT 26TH 2012
51/46 I cna not believe that there are 46% of Floridians that are this freaking Stupid. Gee, Wake up you morons
Harvey Henry
3:34PM OCT 26TH 2012
You are the idiot, Gene if you have swallowed the lie that Romney is not the second coming of George W Bush. How quickly we forget! 46% have not forgotten where 8 years of a Republican president got us.
JS
3:43PM OCT 26TH 2012
I'm sure that Barney Fwank and the Democrat Congress had absolutely nothing to do with where the country is. We had about 7 good years under Bush/2 until the housing bubble caused by them burst.
JS
3:43PM OCT 26TH 2012
I'm sure that Barney Fwank and the Democrat Congress had absolutely nothing to do with where the country is. We had about 7 good years under Bush/2 until the housing bubble caused by them burst.
Genny
2:49PM OCT 26TH 2012
I live on Long Island in New York and I have yet to see an Obama sign anywhere... any yet, Romney signs are cropping up everywhere. And yes, New York is not just a blue state, it is a NAVY BLUE state.
Alex Warren
2:38PM OCT 26TH 2012
I live in a mostly hispanic suburb in South Orlando. A place you would think would swing heavily for Obama but most of the yard signs I see out (when I see them at all) are for Romney and Webster. I'm rarely if ever seeing any signs for Obama, just the bumper stickers from various obvious college kids. I'm thinking maybe come November 6th this might not be nearly as close a race as people think it will be.
Mike
4:44PM OCT 26TH 2012
I'm thinking landslide also Alex. Like Reagan/Carter election. I think many are too intemidated to openly support Romney. I won't put a Romney bumper sticker on my car for fear of having it keyed or trashed. Americans can be fooled onced, but not twice in a row!
Fred
7:43PM OCT 27TH 2012
I'm afraid to put an Obama sticker in my yard for fear that my neighbors will burn my house down!! BUT me and all my friends are voting for O--what'ya think about that? I pay more in taxes that most of you make--and refuse to destroy the country by voting for an obvious vulture.
Glenn
9:55PM OCT 28TH 2012
I bet you dont pay more taxes than me. And anyone who votes for this FRAUD POTUS is simply a wrench in the gears not a spoke in the wheel.
You and your kind are the picture of whats wrong with this country. Liberalism is a disease!!!
Glenn
9:55PM OCT 28TH 2012
I bet you dont pay more taxes than me. And anyone who votes for this FRAUD POTUS is simply a wrench in the gears not a spoke in the wheel.
You and your kind are the picture of whats wrong with this country. Liberalism is a disease!!!
DARNELL
2:37PM OCT 26TH 2012
OBAMA has no ideas. Just Libya hangin around his neck. R/R 2012!
Mike Jones
2:12PM OCT 26TH 2012
Sarasota County here (SWFL). For all you Americans from other states, ROMNEY signs EVERYWHERE. Obama signs? ehh .. hardly anywhere. I saw 3 yard signs in last several weeks. I commute everyday on I75 40 miles to and fro, NO OBAMA stickers anywhere, many Romney stickers.
RICHARD BEY
1:43PM OCT 26TH 2012
Voter Survey Service is a division of Pennsylvania-based Susquehanna Polling and Research in Harrisburg. Who is Susquehanna polls? They’re a Republican polling firm run by a former lobbyist. As others have pointed out polling 50% conservatives and 15% liberals will not give you an accurate picture of the electorate. Who owns and funds Sunshine State News? Good luck finding that out. They are a secret news organization. But its absolutely clear from looking over the news here and their unbalanced polling what TYPE of group owns and runs this so-called 'fair and balanced' site. Oh, well, it gave Drudge something to link to...
Brad C
1:42PM OCT 26TH 2012
(Last post submitted by phone , spelling was atrocious, corrected)
I have a home in Venice Florida and spent the last week there. My neighborhood is primarily (90%) retirees and is certainly not upper income at all. There were Romney signs everywhere I went and yes I did see a few Obama signs , its wasn't even statistically close. When I drove to the neighborhoods surrounding Main Street venice the same thing. Down towards Punta Gorda for dinner 2 nights , same thing. Spoke with my neighbors , not one of them under the age of 65 and all are in for Romney. Helen, my next door neighbor said it best. "I'll be ok , how many years do I really have left anyway?, but I'll be G** D**ned if my kids and grandkids are going to be left with Obamas mess. Now , someone would say that if you go through the effort to go down on Tamiami Trail to the campaign headquarters for either party and pick up a sign that you are an enthusiatic voter. That being said, even if the Obama vote is close in the polls , just the vast difference in Romney signs versus Obama signs tells me all I need to know about who is going to get out the vote , at least in this area of Sarasota County.
KrisinUT
1:40PM OCT 26TH 2012
Seriously Frank??? The SL Tribune is a LIBERAL paper! Salt Lake is a liberal city! It was voted recently the GAYEST city in the country. Get your facts straight and stop with the stereotypes... YES..UT has a lot of Mormons but believe it or not, it's NOT predominantly Mormon (and yes, I AM a Mormon). The SL Tribune is so ANTI-Mormon it's not funny. So its endorsement of Obama is not even a surprise. The shocker would have been an endorsement of Romney. So keep on getting your facts wrong and live in denial... Romney WILL be our next president.
Jerry Hersch
1:38PM OCT 26TH 2012
You should say out loud that Voter Survey Services is part of Susquehanna -a firm normally hired by Republicans..and that the last polls done in Florida were by Fox..and Rasmussen both with a Republican tilt bias..it is not like an out of state firm is as some would like to imply neutral..PPP is a Democrat polling organization and prominently says so
Brad C
1:37PM OCT 26TH 2012
I have a home in Venice Florida and spent the last week there. My neighborhood is primarily (90%) retirees and is certainly not upper income at all. There were Romeny signs everywhere I went and yes I did see a few Obama signs , its wasn't even statistically close. When I dorve to the neighborhhods surrounding main street venice the same thing. Down towards PPunta Gorda for dinner 2 nights , same thing. Now , someone would say that if you go through the effort to go down on Tamiami Trail to the campaign headquarters for either party and pick up a sign that you are an enthusiatic voter. That being said, even if the Obama vote is close in the polls , just the vast difference in Romney signs versus Obama signs tells me all I need to know about who is going to get out the vote , at least in this area of Sarasota County.
Rosemary Osnato
12:01PM OCT 26TH 2012
How can you judge the black vote using an automated system? The demographics of this state tabor the president. Live polling is the only way to determine who you are reaching. Yon also have to speak Spanish to have many Hispanics speak to you or even answer the phone. I did a demographic polling of the Texas primary in 08 and I had Clinton winning by 3 points she won by 4. I did the same thing in Nevada in 2010 had Reid winning by 4.6 he won by 5. I have the president winning Florida by 1.5 to 2 pionts. Do to the LACK of white support in this state. Obama getting only 39%. Also the Cuban vote for this Republican is only 48% to Obama's 40. The Mexican and the P.R vote is above 70%. Even with the Asian vote Chinese) going to Romney it does not compensate for the other races which the president has a 10% advantage. The elementary school vote not wrong in 70 years has the president winning reelection and Obama winning Florida by 3 points. University of Northern Florida specking in Spanish has the president winning by 4.
JWCRAwcra
4:15PM OCT 26TH 2012
what does this post even mean?
Paul
3:32PM OCT 26TH 2012
"specking'???? I don't think you have ever attended a school, let alone did any polling.
JDanielBoone
1:35PM OCT 26TH 2012
Would you like the cherry Koolaid, or since this is Florida, would you prefer the orange. They're both yummy.

Useful Idiocy is a choice.
Rich
1:22PM OCT 26TH 2012
Dream on and keep drinking that Kool-Aid!
Cubano
1:18PM OCT 26TH 2012
Dream on. It's over.
Frank
11:04AM OCT 26TH 2012
They say no one knows you like your home folks.

The Salt Lake Tribune, the main newspaper in Mormon Utah, just endorsed Obama. As the Tribune put it, "Romney has raised the most frequently asked question of the campaign: 'Who is this guy, really, and what in the world does he truly believe?' ". . . . coming to the conclusion that "The president has earned a second term . . .Romney, in whatever guise, does not deserve a first."

Another recent endorsement for Obama was just made by past Republican Secretary of State Colin Powell who noted that "I’m not quite sure which Governor Romney we would be getting with respect to foreign policy . . . .One day he has a certain strong view about staying in Afghanistan, but then on Monday night he agrees with the withdrawal. Same thing in Iraq."

Other recent major battleground state endorsements include those by the Denver Post, the Cleveland Plain Dealer, the Charlotte Observer, as well as by the New York Times and the Washington Post.

All this despite John Sununu's racist comments about Colin Powell's support for Obama.

Pathetic.
John
5:54PM OCT 26TH 2012
U idiot, i live in utah and i could of told you that was going to happen months ago. That is like MSNBC giving there support to Obama. The salt lake tribune is the most anti mormon, liberal paper in SLC. Also, very bias. And, the main paper in SLC is the Deseret News and they supported Romney months ago.
Frank
6:53PM OCT 26TH 2012
I guess you know your Utah papers like any good truthiness expert . . . . The Salt Lake Tribune is the largest-circulated daily newspaper in the city of Salt Lake City (Deseret News is 2nd), is owned by MediaNews Group, and jointly operated with the Deseret News through Newspaper Agency Corporation.
Eddie
2:20PM OCT 26TH 2012
Really, Frank? You're basing your knowledge of Mr. Romney on newspapers endosements? What about The Detroit News and The Orlando Sun-Sentinel? They just came out and supported Romney and they had a few morsals to say about "O". By the way, you know majority of the media, like Hollywood, is left slanted, right? Mr. Romney has proven himself time and again as a fixer and a problem solver. Something that CAN'T be said for your candidate. Also, easy on the race baiting. Governor Sununu was just pointing out that, like in the last election, which Obama won with Blacks voting 98% for him, it's alright to support your candidate, if you prefer race (Jay-Z, Beyonce, Samuel Jackson, MSNBC support him for that reason) over substance or content. But that Powell should not hide, his true reason for support, behind fabricated Democratic talking points when issuing it. As I recall, a certain "community organizer", Obama, did not have any foreign policy experience when he was elected Prez (oh, and 'living overseas' doesn't count). Hell, he hardly had any true political experience, as proven by his state senator resume (voted "present" 132 times). Either way, back to the Sununu point. So, then, would you say that the majority of Blacks, who voted 98% for Obama, practiced reverse racism?
Think about it...Take off the liberal sunglasses...Come to the truth.
John Croshaw
2:17PM OCT 26TH 2012
You are an ignorant fool. The Salt Lake Tribune is a liberal hack newspaper, not to mention blatantly anti-mormon. They will obviously support Obama and try to trash Romney.

By the way, THE REST OF UTAH happens to be the most conservatively Republican state in the Union. They are the only state to vote Bill Clinton in 3rd place, TWICE.

Liberals are such morons.
Kenny
2:13PM OCT 26TH 2012
The Salt Lake Tribune is a known liberal newspaper in Utah, and does not represent the mainstream Utah point of view, which is better espoused by the Deseret News. It was no surprise at all that the Salt Lake Tribune endorsed Obama. That paper has a known liberal bias, so the fact that it didn't endorse Romney is no surprise at all. No news here.

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