Despite all pundits belittling her chances to win back the gavel, Pelosi claimed there was a path to win control of the House in November and it rests on Florida where two congressional districts -- those held by Democrat Corrine Brown and Republican Dan Webster -- were ruled unconstitutional. But time is running short. Absentee ballots go out on Tuesday for Augusts primaries. Redistricting looks like it will have more of an impact in Florida come 2016.
Looking around Florida, its tough to see how Democrats make much in the way of progress to winning back the House. Democrats like their chances against Steve Southerland in North Florida. Gwen Graham has proven a strong fundraiser and shes hoping state employees come out in full force in and around Tallahassee. But Southerlands been trying to pin Pelosi to Graham. With her recent comments about how important Florida is to her coming back as speaker, Pelosi isnt exactly helping Graham on that front.
But if Democrats like their chances against Southerland, its tough to envision another Republican seat they could pick up in November. Even if Websters district changes in the days to come, the Democrats have a weak field of candidates running against him and would be very hard-pressed to defeat him. Nor do their chances look any better elsewhere as Jeff Miller, Ted Yoho, Ron DeSantis, John Mica, Bill Posey, Rich Nugent, Dennis Ross, Vern Buchanan, Tom Rooney and Curt Clawson all start with massive leads over their Democratic challengers. The Democrats didnt even bother to field candidates against Ander Crenshaw, Gus Bilirakis, David Jolly, Mario Diaz-Balart and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.
To their credit, Democrats are certainly in good position to hold most of their current seats. Brown wont have any problems unless shes redistricted and even then, like Webster, shes not exactly facing topnotch opponents. The likes of Alan Grayson, Kathy Castor, Alcee Hastings, Lois Frankel, Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Frederica Wilson should easily run over their Republican opponents. Ted Deutch doesnt have to worry about a Republican challenger in November.
Republicans had some hope of taking down Patrick Murphy after his narrow win over Allen West last year. But Murphy has been a hard worker and a good fundraiser. West and other top Republicans stayed out of the race, leaving a far weaker field than anyone could have expected. After the second quarter fundraising numbers came out last week, national pundits lowered the GOPs chances of picking this seat up. Unless something drastic happens in the coming weeks, Murphy appears headed back to Washington with surprising ease.
Republicans can at least feel better about their chances of beating Joe Garcia. Carlos Curbelo should easily handle his primary opponents next month, paving the way for a competitive general election contest. Garcias made some gaffes, to be sure, but hes been a strong fundraiser and has the edge in cash, a major factor in the expensive South Florida markets.
Increasingly it appears Democrats have only one viable Florida target to flip in Southerlands seat while the GOP has a realistic chance of beating Garcia and other Democrat incumbents should stay safe. Pelosi and the Democrats need at least another Republican seat or two to be competitive if they are going to have any chance of flipping the House in November. Even if redistricting comes into play, Democrats looking to take the House shouldnt expect much from Florida. The Sunshine State -- like the rest of the nation -- is primed to keep the House under GOP control.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis piece exclusively for Sunshine State News.