Politics

Poll: Rivera, Garcia Feeling Miami Heat

Locked in a statistical tie, Democrats hope to take Republican House seat
By: Kenric Ward | Posted: October 28, 2010 4:05 AM
Around the State
Joe Garcia and David Rivera -- Sunshine State News PollJoe Garcia and David Rivera. Garcia credit: Ixamar Palumbo
While most of Florida's 25 congressional races tilt toward Republicans this year, Democrats' best chance for a takeaway is in South Florida's sprawling 25th District, a new Sunshine State News Poll shows.

Republican David Rivera holds a 44-43 lead over Democrat Joe Garcia in a four-way contest for the seat being vacated by Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Miami.

TEA Party candidate Rolly Arrojo garnered 6 percent, Whig Party hopeful Craig Porter got 2 percent and 5 percent were undecided in the Oct. 25-26 poll.

"Rivera should be considered the slight favorite to win based on historical voting patterns, but there are some red flags that could tilt this race to Garcia," said Jim Lee, president of Voter Survey Service, which conducted the poll.

Two things going for Rivera:

  • He has a 39/36 favorable/unfavorable rating compared with 35/43 for Garcia.
  • He leads among the most likely voters by a 48-41 margin.


"Although Rivera’s image isn’t great, his tenure as an 8-year incumbent in the state House clearly has paid off, and based on this better image it seems as if the negative publicity surrounding income he received from a company he started years ago isn’t hurting his prospects for winning just yet," Lee said.

But the 25th District, which stretches across the Everglades from Miami to Naples, has been trending more Democratic in recent years -- a shift that prompted Diaz-Balart to move to the more reliably Republican 21st District seat being vacated by his brother, Lincoln Diaz-Balart.

Though President George W. Bush carried the 25th District in 2004 by 10 points, John McCain won it by only 51-49 in 2008.

Attachments: 
application/pdf iconCrosstabs-Florida_CD25_Oct10.pdf

Tags: 25th Congressional District, Craig Porter, David Rivera, Democrats, Florida Tea Party, Joe Garcia, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Marco Rubio, Mario Diaz-Balart, News, Republicans, Rolly Arrojo, Voter Survey Service, Whig Party, Politics

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