Politics

Poll: Scott and Sink Locked in Dead Heat

The most reliable voters favor GOP candidate, but 'McCollum factor' looms
By: Kenric Ward | Posted: October 22, 2010 4:05 AM
Rick Scott and Alex Sink -- Sunshine State News Poll
Locked in a furious electoral fight to the finish, Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Alex Sink have pulled dead even in the race for Florida's governorship, a new Sunshine State News Poll shows.

The Oct. 20 survey shows Scott and Sink tied at 45-45, with 8 percent favoring "someone else/other" and 2 percent undecided.

A breakdown of the data offers hope for both candidates, says Jim Lee, president of Voter Survey Service, which conducted the poll of likely voters.

"When you look at respondents who say there's an 'excellent' chance of voting, Scott leads 46-44, compared to the 'good/fair' voters, which is Sink winning 53-26.

"This says to me that Scott is still the favorite, since 95 percent of Republicans have an 'excellent' chance of voting, compared to 89 percent of Democrats," Lee said.

On the other hand, Sunshine State News' nightly tracking poll shows a decided shift toward Sink by independent voters in the past two weeks.

Rick Scott and Alex Sink Percentages--Sunshine State News Poll Table
"Comparing their support among independents back to the first tracker on Oct. 6, it shows the movement toward Sink has been with independents from a 45-45 tie on to a 50-35 Sink lead in the current poll -- a 15-point swing," Lee reported.

"This is really where all the movement has occurred because they are still winning their respective bases by the same margins now that they were getting back on Oct. 6," Lee noted.

If the turnout by independents comes close to their registration level -- 22 percent of Florida voters -- this could give Sink the winning edge on Election Day.

When the nightly tracking polls began Oct. 6, Scott held a slim 48-46 lead.

"At this stage in the race, with voters locked in, the contest shifts to who does a better job of turning out their vote," Lee said.

So far, Republicans are turning out in higher percentages than Democrats during early voting, but with 11 days to go until Nov. 2, it's not known if that advantage will hold up.

Another variable is the Bill McCollum factor.

"Currently, 9 percent of Republicans are voting for 'someone else' compared to 6 percent of Democrats, so theoretically this could hurt Scott more particularly if some of these are pro-McCollum voters who still haven’t come back in the fold," Lee said.

While much of the Republican leadership has declared its support for Scott, McCollum, who lost a tight primary contest to the former health-care executive, has remained on the sidelines.

Seven gubernatorial candidates are listed on the ballot, with four No Party Affiliation hopefuls and an Independence Party candidate rounding out the field.

Joe Kildea, a spokesman for the Scott campaign, said, "We always knew this would be a close race. After Wednesday night's debate performance, we're confident that Floridians know that Rick Scott is the candidate who will create jobs."

The Sink campaign did not respond to requests for comment on deadline.

The Sunshine State News Poll conducts nightly surveys of 1,514 likely voters across Florida. The margin of error is +/- 2.52 percent.

--

Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.


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2:15PM OCT 31ST 2011
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jane kat
9:47PM OCT 23RD 2010
Rick Scott is a crook and a whack job. I don;t beleive any Democrat would vote vote him either so you're full of it. People will come to their senses and run far far away.
ghostrideraz
11:04AM OCT 24TH 2010
A whack Job? What basis of fact do you place this statement? This is not the north east where Dem,s rules the political landscape. If you line up both candidates proposed action plans, Scott seems to have a real understanding onhow business works. For the record everyone businss took a hit, none of us has a different vision where we are supposed to be. For me I want to return to family in my home in Orlando, butt the ecnomic picture does not allow me to. People I know have lost there homes and struggling to make ends meet.

So lets clean up our state and bring to level of success as it was just a few years ago! Pick the candidate based on experiance and a plan going forward. Scott is our man!
Independent
10:37PM OCT 25TH 2010
Are real understanding of how business works? Are you kidding me? I run a business in Florida and just this comment alone disgusts me. He is not a business man, he is a THEFT THAT DESERVES TO BE BEHIND BARS! Are you just throwing a blind eye to the billions of dollars of fraud this man has committed? The fact that this race is even close is an insult to this state. I don't consider myself a member of either party, but in this election the choice couldn't be clearer. Alex Sink for governor.
cptndon
9:39AM OCT 22ND 2010
Rick Scott is the only logical choice for Florida unless you want to bring a Pelosi/Obama/Reid type of thinking right into our state capital (then vote for her).
The reason McCollum won't speak out is nothing more than he is not man enough to get over his hurt feelings. He is more concerned about himself than he is about the citizens of Florida.
independentamericanvoter
9:08AM OCT 24TH 2010
oh yeah, stealing millions....he'll fit right in washington
ghostrideraz
10:49AM OCT 24TH 2010
Tisk tisk, Democrates reduced to call names now. No candidated is perfect, but the investment deals that Sink made does not make her a logical candidate. Scott will haveto prove himself if and when he gets to be Gov. of Florda.
There is no free rides any more fore any new incumbant.
Independent
10:40PM OCT 25TH 2010
Hm lets see? Theft or not a theft? Scott's inexperience to Sink's experience? Scott is an absolute FRAUD! You guys are absolute idiots to consider putting a fraud in office. This guy doesn't deserve to be a free man much less the governor of Florida. I guess people never learn though because electing corrupt officials like Scott is pretty common.
yeah right
3:50AM NOV 3RD 2010
Idiot
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3:50AM NOV 3RD 2010
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ghostrideraz
10:55AM OCT 24TH 2010
Got cut off, sorry.
As I was saying there will be no free ride for any incumbant. There is a very high expectation of performace. But Scott's business solution for our state has a stronger base while Sinks's commerace plan is luck warms at best! This is about jobs and how we can pick up our state.
Again has any noticed all the closed business and forclosed houseing lately?
Renee
12:38PM OCT 22ND 2010
I am a Democrat and I am voting for Rick Scott. I am tired of the Obama liberals and Sink appears to be one.
rocky
5:01PM OCT 22ND 2010
if you people from florida vote for sink. you should go ahead and put obama in for 4 more years.there is no free ride..vote for rick scott.he will put us back to work.and put obama back to his lieing and lieing and lieing so he will be gone next year yeaaaaaaaaaaaaa.rick scott rick scott rick scott
independentamericanvotern
9:19AM OCT 24TH 2010
he made millions by defrauding senior citizens, the most varnerable, and the healthcare industry. i love how you all think he's going to go to Washington and fight for the average american........ahhh, wishful thinking! Haven't you all learn by now that republican think money first, not county .

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