Bob Dole, George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan

With the Republican Party of Florida hosting the Presidency 5 conference and straw poll in September, all eyes will be on candidates aiming for the Republican nomination to take on Barack Obama.

Presidency 5, set for Orlando Sept. 22-24, will feature a straw poll -- the fourth one at the cattle show put on by the RPOF.

The RPOF boasts that the previous three straw polls produced the eventual Republican nominee, and they have a point. But with rare exceptions -- like Wendell Willkie in 1940 -- the Republicans usually nominate the front-runner who, almost always, has run for the presidency before.

The one nominee in recent years who never previously ran for the presidency was George W. Bush back in 2000 -- but he was the son and namesake of the last Republican president.

Looking back on prior Presidency straw polls, front-runners reinforce their favorite status by winning, while second place often turns out to be an illusion.

The first Presidency straw poll was held in November 1979, and it proved to be somewhat decisive in shaping the rest of the race. While Ronald Reagan had given incumbent Gerald Ford a close battle for the Republican presidential nomination in 1976, there was a pack of GOP hopefuls who felt Democrat Jimmy Carter was weak. Former Texas Gov. John Connally -- a former Democrat wooed over to the GOP by Richard Nixon and best remembered today for his gunshot wound during the JFK assassination in Dallas -- had more money than any other candidate in the race and expected to trip Reagan up in the straw poll.

With the support of the state party, Reagan prevailed, taking 36 percent. Despite hectic campaigning across the Sunshine State and spending a bit, Connally took second with 27 percent -- a strong showing undermined by his camp expecting to win, with his handlers even issuing a press release claiming a “major upset victory.”

Third place went to a bit of a dark horse -- a former diplomat, congressman and CIA chief by the name of George H.W. Bush, who was starting to emerge as a national force. Bush took 21 percent, setting the stage for his surprising victory in the Iowa caucus and his rise to the vice presidency under Reagan.