Following his wins last week in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum has propelled past Mitt Romney in the polls at the national and state level.

According to a national Rasmussen Reports poll of likely primary voters released on Wednesday, Santorum takes 39 percent, while Romney stands in second with 27 percent. Newt Gingrich stands in third with 15 percent while Ron Paul lags in fourth with 10 percent. Three percent back other candidates while 6 percent are undecided.

When matched against Romney in a one-on-one race, Santorum leads over the former Massachusetts governor 55 percent to 34 percent. Romney does better against the other hopefuls in one-on-one match-ups, beating Paul by 5 percent and Gingrich by 9 percent. Despite trailing Santorum, most Republicans -- 64 percent -- think Romney will end up with their party’s nomination.

According to the Rasmussen poll, Santorum leads among key groups in the Republican primary. Thirty-two percent of Republican primary voters identify themselves as members of the tea party movement and Santorum is the clear favorite among these voters. The former senator from Pennsylvania garners a majority -- 53 percent -- of tea party members, while Romney stands in distant second with the backing of 18 percent. Santorum also leads among very conservative Republicans -- once again taking 53 percent while Romney and Gingrich each take the support of 17 percent of them. Romney does better with somewhat conservative Republicans -- but still trails with 34 percent while Santorum takes 37 percent.

A Rasmussen poll taken early last week -- before Santorum’s trifecta -- painted a very different picture, with Romney ahead with 34 percent followed by Gingrich with 27 percent, Santorum with 18 percent and Paul with 11 percent. Seventy-five percent of Republicans said in that poll that they expected Romney to be the nominee.

The poll of 1,000 likely Republican primary voters was conducted on Feb. 14 and had a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.

With the race now heading to Michigan and Arizona, both of which hold primaries on Feb. 28, polls of each state released on Wednesday find that the two leading candidates could earn a split decision.

Three polls released earlier in the week found that Santorum leads in Michigan and on Wednesday a fourth one found him ahead in the Great Lakes State.

Santorum tops a Mitchell/Rosetta Stone poll taken by Michigan Information & Research Service with 34 percent. Romney, who won the Michigan primary by a solid margin over John McCain in 2008 and whose father served as governor of the Great Lakes State during the 1960s, places second with 25 percent. Paul comes in third with 11 percent, followed by Gingrich with 5 percent. Twenty-five percent of those surveyed are undecided.

Earlier in the month -- before Santorum’s wins -- Romney led a Mitchell/Rosetta Stone poll of Michigan with 31 percent, followed by Gingrich with 16 percent and Paul and Santorum knotted together with 15 percent each.

“Santorum’s strong showing on Feb. 7 has turned this volatile race upside down in Michigan,” said Steve Mitchell, the president of Mitchell Research & Communications. “Mitt Romney has dropped 6 percent, Santorum has jumped 18 percent, while Newt Gingrich’s support has collapsed. Santorum has staked a lot in going after Romney in his home state, and so far the gamble is paying off. Conservatives are uniting behind Santorum and abandoning
Gingrich. Now, we will have to see if Santorum has the financial resources to compete against Romney’s big money in the state in which he was born and raised.”

The poll of 455 likely Michigan Republican primary voters was taken on Feb. 14 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percent.

An American Research Group poll of Arizona, released on Wednesday, finds Romney leading in the Grand Canyon State, taking 38 percent. Santorum is in second with 31 percent, followed by Gingrich with 15 percent and Paul with 11 percent. Romney does better with tea party supporters -- 48 percent of likely GOP primary voters -- in Arizona, taking 41 percent of them, followed by Santorum with 34 percent, Gingrich with 10 percent and Paul with 7 percent.

An ARG poll taken Jan. 25-26 of Arizona found Romney and Gingrich tied with 32 percent each, Paul in third with 12 percent and Santorum with 10 percent.

The ARG poll released Wednesday of 600 likely Arizona Republican primary voters was taken Feb. 13-14 and had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

One of the key states on deck after Arizona and Michigan have their say is Ohio, which holds its primary on March 6. According to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday, Santorum has moved ahead of Romney in that pivotal state.

The poll of likely primary voters has Santorum on top in the Buckeye State with 36 percent, followed by Romney with 29 percent and Gingrich in third with 20 percent. Paul lags in the single digits, taking 9 percent in the poll. However, Ohio Republicans remain up for grabs -- with 50 percent of those surveyed open to changing their minds before the primary.

"Senator Rick Santorum has zoomed to the front of the line among likely voters in Ohio's March 6 Republican presidential primary," said Peter Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, on Wednesday. "He appears to be riding the momentum from his victories last week in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri.

"Unclear is whether that momentum fizzles, as happened to Santorum in New Hampshire after winning Iowa, and as happened to Governor Mitt Romney in South Carolina after winning New Hampshire and Speaker Newt Gingrich in Florida after taking South Carolina," Brown noted.

The poll of 553 likely Ohio Republican primary voters was taken Feb. 7-12 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent.



Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.