It is way too early for this, but Florida Current asked its readers if Gov. Rick Scott would face a primary challenge in 2014 when he runs for a second term.

Scott has already indicated that he will seek another term -- and Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam quickly blew off suggestions that he might take on the governor.

While 64 percent of Florida Current’s readers responded that they think Scott will face a primary, it’s telling that there are no names brought up as possible primary challengers. I suspect if Scott does face a primary challenge, it will be from someone who doesn't have much name recognition.

It’s happened before, after all. Does the name Marlene Woodson Howard ring a bell?

Well, probably not, but for those of you who have come in late, she was elected to the state Senate in 1986 and ran against then-Gov. Bob Martinez in the Republican gubernatorial primary in 1990. Martinez took 69 percent while Howard drew under 20 percent of the vote. The rest was divided among minor candidates.

While Martinez had no problem dispatching Howard, the primary showed the governor was in dreadful shape to win another term -- and he got buried in a landslide by Democratic candidate Lawton Chiles come November.

But Martinez -- who polled worse than Scott currently does -- was vulnerable to a primary challenge.

If the Eleventh Commandment for Republicans was Ronald Reagan’s old line about not attacking fellow party members, then the Twelfth Commandment would be, “Thou shall not propose tax increases.” Martinez did exactly that in 1987 and paid the price for it. So did George H.W. Bush who also survived a serious primary challenge from Pat Buchanan in 1992 when he sought another term in the White House.

Scott is much more secure than Martinez was from a primary challenge -- there simply is not that much room to his right.

As the 2010 Republican primaries showed, the path to winning the GOP’s nomination is to the right. It worked for Marco Rubio and Pam Bondi, and it worked for Scott. The governor may be vulnerable in the general election in 2014 -- he did win the closest gubernatorial election in the Sunshine State’s history, after all -- but he should have no problem if a Republican wants to take him on.

Scott will have the party apparatus and his own wealth -- and that should be more than enough to drive off the future would-be Marlene Woodson Howard. If Scott gets knocked off in 2014, he will lose to the likes of Alex Sink, Charlie Crist or Rod Smith -- not from the likes of Mike Fasano.


This is an opinion column by Kevin Derby. Kevin can be reached at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.