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Is Ron Paul Gaining Traction in Early Republican Contests?

By: Kevin Derby | Posted: October 27, 2011 3:34 PM
Kevin Derby MugKevin Derby

On Thursday, the team behind U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, making his second bid for the Republican presidential nomination, trumpeted polls of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina that, they insist, show their candidate is building momentum.

But while Paul is doing much better in South Carolina, his poll numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire are barely above what he pulled in the 2008 contest -- and he continues to struggle in Florida.

“The steady, growing support Ron Paul earns in the key early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina is a direct result of his winning message of constitutionally limited government, sound money, and a strong national defense,” said Jesse Benton, Paul’s national chairman, in a statement released on Thursday.

Paul, who finished in a strong second in the Iowa Republican straw poll in August, takes 12 percent in the Hawkeye State, behind former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, who leads with 24 percent, and businessman Herman Cain, who stands in second with 21 percent. Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Gov. Rick Perry of Texas are right behind Paul with 10 percent apiece. The poll of 405 Republican voters in Iowa was taken Oct. 20-25 and had a margin of error of +/- 5 percent. While he is doing better in Iowa, Paul’s numbers in the CNN/Time poll are not that far ahead of what he pulled in the 2008 caucus -- when he finished in fifth place with 10 percent.

With 12 percent in New Hampshire, Paul is right on Cain’s heels for second in the Granite State. Cain takes 13 percent in the CNN/Time poll -- far behind Romney who leads in the first primary state with 40 percent. The poll of 211 Republican voters in New Hampshire and 189 independents who voted in the 2008 Republican primary was taken from Oct. 20-25 and had a margin of error of +/- 5 percent. In the 2008 New Hampshire primary, Paul took 8 percent of the vote and, once again, came in fifth place -- again within the margin of error of the poll.

While Benton’s claim that Paul has “growing support” in Iowa and New Hampshire seems a bit of a stretch, the Texas congressman is doing much better in South Carolina, the first state in the South to hold a primary. Paul flopped in the Palmetto State in 2008. He took 4 percent and, once again, came in fifth place back in 2008.

The CNN/Time poll shows Paul doing much better this time around in third place with 12 percent. Romney leads in South Carolina with 25 percent with Cain right behind at 23 percent. Perry takes fourth with 11 percent. The poll of 400 Republican voters in South Carolina was taken from Oct. 20-25 and had a margin of error of +/- 5 percent.

Benton ignored one of the four CNN/Time polls of early states released on Wednesday. Paul floundered in Florida back in 2008, taking fifth place with less than 3.25 percent of the vote. According to the CNN/Time poll, Paul remains out of the picture in the Sunshine State, taking fifth place for 6 percent. Romney leads with 30 percent in Florida, while Cain, who won the Presidency 5 straw poll in Orlando last month, stands in second place with 18 percent. Gingrich and Perry are locked in a tie for third with 9 percent each. The poll of 401 Republican voters in Florida was taken from Oct. 20-25 and had a margin of error of +/- 5 percent.

Paul has done considerably better with fundraising than he did in 2008 and that could help his campaign as the weeks go by. But, with a little more than two months until Iowa Republicans vote in the caucus, the Paul campaign is showing little signs of serious progress outside of South Carolina.

As the Paul team notes, their supporters are very committed to their candidate. The problem is the Paul campaign is struggling in attracting enough Republican voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida who are not behind the Texas congressman already.


Comments (13)

Rpicardo
11:11AM OCT 29TH 2011
Get the word out. Ron Paul 2012!
Jim
4:48PM OCT 28TH 2011
@Don Mech a flake? How so? He has been the most consistent non-flaky politician over the past 3 decades that America has ever seen.
You need to read more.

Also, this is his 3rd run for President not 2nd. And you know what they say? 3rd times the charm!
Don Mech
3:32PM OCT 28TH 2011
Whie he has some really great ideas he is too much of a flake on other things to be taken seriously.
Spence
1:15PM OCT 28TH 2011
Hello there author. Don't forget who else flopped in 2008. Mitt Romney! And, Ron Paul's poll numbers are 2-3 times what they were in 2008 and are rising. Since his supporters are more notably passionate, it is also logical to conclude he will have turnout that is 2-3 times as much when it comes to votes. Every poll percent Ron Paul goes up is 2-3% when it comes to the actual vote. Also, it is notable to say that Iowa and NH are notorious for destroying front runners. So Mitt Romney better watch out. A loss in Iowa could drop him 15% points in NH very easily.
RP1776
10:44AM OCT 28TH 2011
Did anyone else happen to catch the the most recent polling numbers being thrown around were taken from only people over the age of 65. This is probably Ron Paul's weakest demographic, so if he's getting 10/12/14% in these states among said demographic, what does that say about the fact that the 18-30 yo's are being largely unaccounted for? I think the MSM are in for a rude awakening.
Elias
8:47AM OCT 28TH 2011
Generally speaking only South Carolina is important in Republican Presidential nominations since no candidate ever becomes the nominee without taking South Carolina. It's good to see Ron Paul is doing better in South Carolina although it does seem that he's too far out to have a decent shot at it.
Charles
8:30AM OCT 28TH 2011
I was a life long democrat until 2007 when I discovered Ron Paul. Many other democrats and independents would also see the light if the media would give him fair coverage. You will rarely find an article that toward the end, doesn't say RP has no chance of winning. Ron Paul will be in the final three in this election cycle, and has a good chance of winning.
Todd
8:14AM OCT 28TH 2011
The tea party can't vote for Cain, he supported the bail-outs. The tea party can't vote for Romney because he created a healthcare system very similar to Obamacare. The tea party can't vote for Gingrich because he supports the mandate to carry heath insurance.

These are key issues with the tea party. Only Dr. Paul stands for tea party priciples of small, constitutional gov't, low taxes, Liberty (Don't tread on me).

Dr. Paul is the father of the tea party. If he loses the Republican primary, he needs to run in a new party called the Tea party.
Eve Marie
10:49AM OCT 28TH 2011
I agree. If Ron Paul doesn't get the nod, I will vote for him as a 3rd party. If he doesn't run 3rd party, I will write him in.
No more "business-as-usual" voting for me.
In my opinion, all of his Republican rivals are AS BAD as Obama.
professorjoe
7:42AM OCT 28TH 2011
How Clever Mr Derby are your efforts to convince the great unwashed that somehow Dr Paul's rise is only an illusion.Clever. but not clever enough. You cite New Hampshire 2008 where Paul got 8% and claim that the fact he is at 11% now is within the margin of error of 5%, so he really is at 8% again. Well first off if He 's really only at 8% in NH then there should be polls showing him at 3% because the margin swings BOTH ways IT'S NOT POSSIBLE TO BE AT THE ZENITH OF EACH AND EVERY POLL and you should know that.No there are no 3% polls,six percent is his lowest reading and that comes from FOX. Your major flaw however is you are comparing apples and oranges.you are comparing his present poll numbers with 2008 results, a slight of hand that only the learned will notice. You see in 2008 his polls going into NH had him at 5-6% so his poll numbers now are DOUBLE what they were then.In NY He was at 4% going in and ended up with 8%. Paul is consistently under polled because large numbers of his supporters are FIRST TIME VOTERS and crossover voters. So if you want an accurate reading take that 11% and multiply by 2.but first get the alka seltzer out for the RNC!
Woody
9:48AM OCT 28TH 2011
So True. I've seen the polls. "Registered REPUBLICAN voters." The polls also show that Paul's support among Independents and Democrats is TWICE than that of Republicans. In open primary and caucus states, whatever number he's polling at, multiply by 3. He has the organization to do it and the supporters are committed. It will be interesting to say the least.
Tim M
6:50AM OCT 28TH 2011
What the Cain resume leaves out is:

1996 - Senior advisor to Dole/Kemp campaign.
2000 - Ran a brief campaign for President.
2004 - Ran for US Senate in Georgia

All of the candidates are offering plans for the revenue side of the problem, but the real problem is government spending.

Only Ron Paul's trillion dollar deficit reduction plan address spending. Give it a look. RonPaul2012.com

Thanks
bse2
7:54PM OCT 27TH 2011
Herman Cain's 999 tax plan includes a national sales tax. The constitution does NOT authorize a sales tax. His 999 plan is unconstitutional and a scheme to raise taxes. At least in 1913 when the federal government began collecting an income tax, they still thought enough of the constitution to amend it. Herman Cain clearly doesn't think very highly of the constitution.

I would never vote for Herman Cain.