Politics
Roundup of the Future: 12 Stories to Watch in '12
Around the State

12. A NEW LEGISLATURE, OR MORE OF THE SAME?: When voters approved constitutional amendments Nos. 5 and 6 last year, some undoubtedly thought that they were laying the groundwork for a sea change in how the Legislature is chosen. For decades, many have bemoaned that voters don't choose lawmakers, lawmakers choose voters. In drawing the legislative and congressional boundaries, gerrymandering has always featured prominently, and some say the result has been too many noncompetitive elections that prevent true change in the makeup of political representation. Republicans, while roughly even in registration, have a lock on the Legislature for a variety of reasons, and many observers say most seats won't turn over unexpectedly even with the new amendments in place. The new rules say lawmakers can't draw boundaries to favor themselves, each other or their parties, but some think that's pretty difficult. Come November, we'll find out – and whether we have mostly the same faces in the Legislature, or a crop of unexpectedly competitive races that makes some seats turn over, will be one of the most closely watched stories of 2012 for Legislature-watchers.
11. U.S. SENATE RACE MATTERS: Whether U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson can win a third term is part of the national political calculus in the coming election year with control of the U.S. Senate possibly in the balance. Decisions not to run for re-election by a number of U.S. Senate Democrats mean a battle for control of the Senate that makes every race matter. Nelson, a Democrat first elected to the Senate in 2000, doesn't yet know who he'll face, but recent polls make it look likely that the GOP candidate could be U.S. Rep. Connie Mack. Republicans will put massive amounts of money and effort into the race if they think they can win.
10. HIGHER EDUCATION: This is down the list because, frankly, it may be that not much happens. But if something does happen, it could be a pretty big deal. Gov. Rick Scott is starting to talk to anyone who will listen about the need for Florida taxpayers to get more for their money from the state university system – and about the prospects for turning the university system from a, well, university system for students, into an economic development tool for the state. Building a better work force through technology (actually through science, technology, engineering and math) is a new, big part of Scott's idea for creating jobs, something he's staked his governorship on. The universities are well aware of where Scott wants to go, and are starting to try to figure out ways they can help drive the train rather than being just hitched to it and pulled down the tracks. So something is moving, but how long it will take isn't clear. It's a pretty big, fundamental change that is being talked about – putting the state's needs ahead of the student's needs, as a recent report by the Higher Education Coordinating Council put it – and it may be a multiyear project. Some lawmakers and even Scott have acknowledged it will be tough to do a lot on this issue quickly. But it will be looming in the background all year.
9. PIP -- BEYOND FRAUD DOME: Fraud is bad. That is about the only consensus that could be reached as players in the game of personal injury protection car insurance met in 2011 to map out reforms to curb the dramatic rise in the cost of coverage, created in the 1970s, to establish a way for injured motorists to get medical attention without going to court. Gov. Rick Scott and Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater have called for reforms. Tougher penalties for fraud will be a likely outcome, but other suggestions to limit coverage, cap attorneys' fees and place more scrutiny on physicians and clinics may be too heavy a lift during an election-year session.

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