Government

S&P Offers Negative Outlook on Federal Government's Debt and Future Credit

Marco Rubio calls the news a warning to get serious on tackling deficit and debt
By: Kevin Derby | Posted: April 19, 2011 3:55 AM

On Monday, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services (S&P) announced that it had lowered its outlook of the federal government’s debt due to concerns about both the national debt and deficits.

While Standard & Poor's gave the federal government a ‘AAA’ rating, which is the highest rating they give borrowers, they also maintained that this rating will be lowered soon if something isn't done about the national debt and the deficit. Wall Street reacted sharply to the news as the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 1 percent Monday.

Nikola Swann, a credit analyst with Standard & Poor's, maintained the U.S. is in solid shape for the moment due to the nation’s economy and the dollar’s role in the global market place. But he expressed grave concerns about the future.

"Although we believe these strengths currently outweigh what we consider to be the U.S.'s meaningful economic and fiscal risks and large external debtor position, we now believe that they might not fully offset the credit risks over the next two years at the 'AAA' level," said Swann on Monday. "More than two years after the beginning of the recent crisis, U.S. policymakers have still not agreed on how to reverse recent fiscal deterioration or address longer-term fiscal pressures.”

Swann and the Standard & Poor’s team noted that the deficit hovered between 2 percent and 5 percent of the total GDP during most of the last decade -- but increased to more than 11 percent in 2009.

Nor did the venerable financial services, which have been active in one form or another for more than 150 years, find much hope in either the reforms unveiled by President Barack Obama last week or those championed by congressional Republicans led by U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis.

“We view President Obama's and Congressman Ryan's proposals as the starting point of a process aimed at broader engagement, which could result in substantial and lasting U.S. government fiscal consolidation,” noted Standard & Poor’s. “That said, we see the path to agreement as challenging because the gap between the parties remains wide. We believe there is a significant risk that congressional negotiations could result in no agreement on a medium-term fiscal strategy until after the fall 2012 congressional and presidential elections. If so, the first budget proposal that could include related measures would be Budget 2014 (for the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1, 2013), and we believe a delay beyond that time is possible.”

Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets Mary Miller responded on behalf of the U.S. Treasury Department.

“This morning, S&P affirmed the AAA rating of the U.S., but emphasized the importance of timely bipartisan cooperation and action on fiscal reform,” said Miller. “In addition, Moody’s commented today that ‘we view the changed parameters of the debate, with broadly similar goals as to government debt levels, as a turning point that is positive for the long-term fiscal position of the U.S. federal government.’

“As the president said last week, addressing the current fiscal situation is well within our capacity as a country,” continued Miller. “He has initiated a bipartisan process that will allow us to make progress on a balanced approach to restoring fiscal responsibility. The U.S. economy is strengthening as it emerges from the recent recession. Both political parties now agree that it is time to begin bringing down deficits as a share of GDP. S&P assumes that the U.S. will enact ‘a comprehensive budgetary consolidation program – combined with meaningful steps toward implementation by 2013,’ but we believe S&P’s negative outlook underestimates the ability of America’s leaders to come together ..."

Mulling over the news Monday, Florida Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio called it a warning that cannot be overlooked.


Comments (1)

Miami Gringo
9:15AM APR 19TH 2011
We are about out of confidence that the politicians can or will solve this. This is why a semi-buffoon like Donald Trump has a chance at becoming president..and I might vote for him!