Politics
Stakes are High in Iowa Straw Poll for 2012 GOP Hopefuls
Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain and Tim Pawlenty hope for strong showings in Ames
Around the State

Former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts is the front-runner for the Republican nomination, but he has downplayed the Iowa straw poll. While Romney has made a few trips to the Hawkeye State, including an appearance on Thursday before a debate with the other candidates, he has focused on New Hampshire, site of the first primary. Romney’s supporters want their man to do well Saturday -- but if it happens, he can shrug off a poor showing
U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota has a lot at stake in the straw poll. Since entering the race in June, Bachmann has surged in the polls, though her momentum in recent surveys has stalled a bit. With roots in the state from her childhood, Bachmann has focused like a laser on Iowa and she has built a formidable organization. Bachmann hopes to parlay a strong showing in Ames into establishing her as the chief conservative challenger to Romney. But she has competition in the form of two possible candidates who have not entered the race -- Gov. Rick Perry of Texas and former Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska. Perry is expected to launch his campaign in the coming days and Palin unexpectedly turned her attention to Iowa on Friday as part of her bus tour across the nation. If Bachmann stumbles in Ames, conservatives may look at other options -- namely, Perry and Palin.
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who ran for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, is back and it appears that he will be more of a force in Ames this time. Paul has one of the most dedicated followings in recent memory. His supporters argue that, with the current economic climate, more voters are rallying to Paul and his libertarian message. A strong showing in Ames can help show that Paul can appeal to other Republicans besides his cadre of passionate backers.
With the possible exception of Bachmann, no GOP hopeful has as much riding on Ames as her fellow Minnesotan former Gov. Tim Pawlenty. Despite an impressive campaign team and high expectations, Pawlenty has not taken off in polls at the state or national level and has not done well with fundraising. Pawlenty has focused on Iowa and has a solid organization. Despite efforts from his campaign team to set the bar low, Pawlenty needs to do well in Ames. A victory or an impressive showing can put Pawlenty back in the game; a poor showing could be the final nail in the coffin of his presidential ambitions. It’s happened before in Ames. Despite a strong showing in 1996 and a focus on Iowa, a poor showing in the straw poll ended Lamar Alexander’s presidential campaign back in 1999. Tommy Thompson also pulled the plug on his presidential bid in 2007 after a lousy showing in Ames.
Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania is hoping he can appeal to enough conservatives for an impressive showing in Ames. Santorum has not been able to hang with his rivals on fundraising, but he and his family have been hitting Iowa hard, having spent the last three weeks touring the state. If Santorum is going to make a breakthrough, it will have to be in Iowa. A poor showing by the former senator in Ames could lead to increased buzz that his campaign is doomed.
Businessman Herman Cain, a favorite of the tea party movement, made the mistake of saying he needed to place in the top three in Ames to continue his candidacy. Cain has tried to walk back that statement but his campaign has not experienced the breakthrough that some were expecting. There has been a bit of turnover in Cain’s staff in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Cain is in danger of being eclipsed by other conservatives, including Bachmann, Palin and Perry. A strong showing in Ames will help keep Cain in the conservative spotlight and show he can be a serious contender for the nomination.
Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia started the race as one of the top contenders but he has stumbled badly. While Gingrich made a few appearances in Iowa, he has written off the straw poll and is not expected to do well in Ames.
Despite high expectations, Jon Huntsman, the former governor of Utah and ambassador to China, has struggled in the polls. Huntsman has gone out of his way to avoid Iowa, preferring to focus on New Hampshire and Florida where he has based his campaign. It’s telling that Huntsman will spend the weekend in New Hampshire while the other candidates focus on Ames. He is not expected to do well in Ames.
U.S. Rep. Thad McCotter of Michigan is a newcomer to the race and has done little in the way of building a campaign in Iowa or across the nation. The expectations are extremely low for McCotter in Iowa.
There are some Republican hopefuls who will not be included in the straw poll. While former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore of Alabama made a few appearances in Iowa, he was not included in the straw poll. Former Gov. Gary Johnson of New Mexico is more focused on New Hampshire where he hopes his libertarian message will do better. Former Gov. Buddy Roemer of Louisiana has also been focused on New Hampshire.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.

Comments (1)
Of course open border disciples, business lobbyist will deny the obvious, that this illegal incursion is drowning us in debt—with no end in sight. (FAIR) American Federation of Immigration Reform that of 2009, reported that overall costs to subsidize the illegal alien household was calculated through, federal, State, County and Municipal sources that it was a $113 Billion dollar problem. Federation for American Immigration Reform issued a report in which they estimate the total annual costs of illegal immigration at the federal, state and local level is estimated to be $113 billion combined. The states are bearing the burden of the costs; while the government share is nearly $29 billion, it escalates to $84.2 billion at the state and local level. The annual outlay that illegal aliens cost U.S. taxpayers is an average amount per native-headed household of $1,117. The state-by-state breakdown begins on page 4 of this report at: http://www.fairus.org/site/DocServer/USCostStudy_2010.pdf?docID=4921
Education for the children of illegal migrants and immigrants constitutes the sole largest outlay to taxpayers, at an annual price tag of nearly $52 billion. Virtually all of those expenses are absorbed by state and local governments. At the federal level, only about one-third of outlays are matched by tax collections from illegal aliens. At the state and local level, an average of less than 5 percent of the public costs is allied with the illegal immigration occupation and recouped through taxes collected from illegal nationals. Nearly all illegal aliens do not pay income taxes; only those who do, much of the revenues collected are refunded to the illegal immigrants when they file tax returns. Many are also claiming tax credits resultant in payments from the U.S. Treasury. Please note this is not a static expenditure, but these dollars amounts are raising all the time.
Ask yourself, why the Grand Canyon State of Arizona had not choice, but to clamp down against the massive dollar amounts spent to appease illegal alien homesteads How can a small South Western state that is mostly desert, afford to pay out $2 Billion dollars annually for foreigners? Then again-- how can Leftist legislators in Sacramento, California, justify taking taxpayer’s money and giving it to illegal aliens when these persons truly don't exist, other than in ICE enforcement records or Homeland Security? HAS ANY READER THOUGHT OF CHECKING THEIR STATES PAYOUT TO FOREIGN NATIONALS? Although they come here through the magnet of jobs, welfare and each year bring their children. The estimates of 300.000 babies enter via a broken, intermittent border fence, that can no-way be fully enforced without the deployment of troops. Instant citizen for babies is above most payments, is an incredulous cost forced on taxpayers by Liberal judges legislating from their gavel.
Because entering America without papers is not a—FELONY—it is essentially a giant hole in the wall, which imports not only millions of illegal aliens, but a massive population of criminals; bringing death, mayhem and ID theft on the unsuspecting citizens and residents. As I said in my commentary yesterday, the only way to sever the incentive of jobs (which I never thought I would admit) is issuing every citizen and legal resident a government ID CARD. This could be used to get employed US workers. (8 million illegal aliens have stolen jobs from mostly low income Americans according to reputable sources.) The same official ID card could be presented for voting; instead of the mess we have now, with convicted felons, deceased and illegal aliens, fraudulently using the election process to alter an elections direction.
You would also use this federal ID CARD to be checked against other data bases, official birth records to see if you have the right to be issued a driver’s license, vehicle insurance, welfare or other Public entitlements. I shouldn't gloat over the welfare payouts in California, but it is a self inflicted wound caused by the Liberals in the capitol. California, the Godfather of Sanctuary State has a $19 Billion dollar budget gap, with a staggering cost of $21 Billion $ according to the National Conference of State Legislators in 2009. We must wonder how the welfare costs have escalated in two years in the once Golden State?
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