Newt Gingrich

Polls show Newt Gingrich taking a commanding lead among Florida Republicans, throwing a wrench into Mitt Romney's carefully constructed political machine.

Most recently, a Florida Times-Union survey had Gingrich trouncing Romney 41-17. More ominously for Romney, the late November poll showed Herman Cain with 13 percent -- a group of supporters highly unlikely to shift to the former Massachusetts governor now that Cain is out of the race.

But Cain did not deliver a widely rumored endorsement of Gingrich on Monday, and several tea party and conservative groups tell Sunshine State News that they will adamantly oppose the former House speaker.

At this point, Gingrich's strongest appeal appears to be that he is not Romney.

"The question is, will Newt create a large enough pool of voters to be able to beat Romney," says Roger Stone, a veteran GOP strategist.

"The polls show that is happening -- at least for now."

Stone is skeptical of the depth and breadth of Romney's support in the weeks leading up to Florida's Jan. 31 primary.

"What Romney has in Florida is a bunch of country-club Bush Republicans more interested in cocktail parties than primary day," Stone said.

Billie Tucker, chairwoman of the First Coast Tea Party, said the Republican Party needs someone "to kick Barack Obama's butt," and she believes Gingrich is that man.

"People want passion. We don't want milquetoast," she said.

Tucker said the young members of her Jacksonville-based tea party "fell in love with Gingrich before the older people did." She said they appreciate his owning up to previous personal and political mistakes -- of which critics have pointed to several. (See Sunshine State News story here.)

Before Cain's withdrawal, Tucker said, "The tea party was split. Some wanted a Newt-Cain ticket. Some wanted a Cain-Newt ticket."

The common ground was that they did not want Romney.

But despite Gingrich's gaudy poll numbers, the Georgian is still no lock with conservatives in Florida.

"Most of us this morning were asking, 'What is wrong with the Republicans in this country?' relates Diane Kepus, of the Deland 912 patriot group.

"I have the utmost respect for Oklahoma Sen. Tom Coburn, who came out stating there was no way he would ever support Gingrich," Kepus said.

Coburn, who served in the House when Gingrich was speaker, has been quoted as calling Gingrich a poor leader. Other Republicans are said to be ready to amplify on that complaint.

Illustrating the sharp ideological splits Gingrich creates, two leading members of Tea Party Manatee have two different opinions on his candidacy.

Judi Hood said, "Newt Gingrich's campaign has reached out to some of our group, but many of us will never vote for him or Romney or Rick Perry.

"Only the uninformed and misguided would vote for Gingrich or Romney."

On the other hand, Janet Mixon offered that the Bradenton-based tea group conducted a straw poll a few weeks back and "Newt was at the top of the list."

Unlike Romney, Gingrich has virtually no organization in the state.

Kurt Kelly, a former state legislator who ran for Congress last year, is helping the Gingrich campaign, but he directed specific questions to a coordinator in Atlanta.

"His support is overwhelming. It won't take long to organize," said Kelly, who has been working to "lock down" primary voters around the state.

Gingrich's Atlanta-based coordinator told Sunshine State News that the campaign was not ready to announce its leadership team in Florida.

State Rep. Scott Plakon, R-Longwood, was an early Cain supporter and a co-chair of Cain's Florida campaign.

Borrowing a phrase from his erstwhile favorite, Plakon said he was "reassessing" his support going forward.