Aerial view of future SunRail location in Orlando | Credit: orangecountyfl.net

Predictions of a 1-cent sales tax increase in four Central Florida counties are greatly exaggerated. Or are they?

Officials at Metroplan Orlando deny a TV news story that said an agency report will propose the tax hike to cover funding gaps for the SunRail commuter train in Orange, Seminole, Volusia and Osceola counties.

The one-penny boost would generate $488 million a year.

"We have no report coming out. We have a funding task force with local government and the private sector looking at options, but we're not advancing anything," said Kelley Teague, director of public affairs and government relations at Metroplan.

But Teague acknowledged that local governments could "trigger" additional taxes to subsidize the $1.2 billion SunRail venture. Though the train is ticketed to receive state funding through 2021, there is no doubt that more revenue will be needed to keep the 61-mile line operating.

"Everything is subsidized except for toll roads. It's like every type of infrastructure. It's a community good," Teague said.

Beth Dillaha, head of Veto SunRail, suspects that officials will hit up taxpayers sooner, rather than later.

"Everyone knew this [tax increase] was coming for operating costs. The 'dedicated funding source' that SunRail proponents talked about turns out to be you and me," said Dillaha, a former Winter Park city commissioner.

Since any tax proposal is sure to be a tough sell with the public, county commissions could enact it themselves. Passage would require a supermajority -- a majority, plus one.

Even that is problematic, says Osceola County Commissioner Fred Hawkins. That county's voters soundly rejected a tax increase for specific road projects last year, and the commission seems equally disinclined to raise taxes for SunRail.

At this point, the only tax talk in Osceola involves a tightly targeted levy that would be assessed by special taxing districts around SunRail stations.

"Our staff hasn't approached us about funding," said Hawkins, a Republican who voted against the SunRail project.

Meantime, Dillaha said the federal government keeps pushing trouble down the tracks.

On Monday, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development awarded a $2.4 million grant to study development plans around a dozen SunRail stations.

"Congress can't cut spending, but they can spend $2.4 million to 'study development'?" Dillaha scoffs.

A spokesman for U.S. Rep. John Mica, head of the House Transportation Committee and a SunRail advocate, said the Orlando Republican had nothing to do with the latest grant.

"Rep. Mica was not involved in this funding. This was a discretionary program managed by HUD, solicited under a Notice of Funding Availability and was competitively selected," said Brian Waldrip.

SunRail supporters forecast that development around 17 planned stations will generate more than 245,000 jobs during the next 30 years. Skeptical transportation analysts say much of that job growth -- if it occurs -- is merely a transfer from existing businesses elsewhere in the communities.

A one-penny increase in the local sales tax would generate $488 million annually in the four-county area served by SunRail -- $331 million coming from Orange County alone. Dillaha and other critics say another tax would further cripple the region's economy and throw good money after bad.

Equally misguided, critics complain, is the Florida Department of Transportation's plan to subsidize train operations by pulling funds from scheduled road projects.

The Federal Transit Administration forecasts SunRail's initial daily ridership at 4,300 passengers, rising to 7,400 by 2030. Those numbers will barely dent Central Florida's daily traffic volume and are barely half the ridership of South Florida's Tri-Rail system.